從「威脅平衡」論韓美同盟－從金大中政權到朴槿惠政權

本研究主旨為透過瓦特（Stephen M. Walt）的威脅平衡理論檢視從韓國金大中政權開始的韓美同盟發展。經由分析後，本研究認為韓國此時期的外交戰略持續以「北韓問題」與「韓美同盟」為核心。韓國金、盧政府時期的韓美同盟變化，是因雙方對北韓威脅程度的認知差異，造成同盟關係的弱化。然而，隨著北韓核武問題持續升溫，韓國開始改變其外交戰略的內容，韓美雙方對於北韓的威脅認知再次趨同，強化韓美同盟關係並維持至今。在內部關係的演變上，意識型態乃是作為韓美同盟維持的基礎，援助與交流及滲透兩大政策工具則是韓美同盟變化的結果。本研究認為，韓美同盟的變化與韓國外交戰略變化的關鍵，主要受到兩個層面的影響：首先是北韓威脅的增強與否，其次是中國處理北韓議題的態度。這兩大層面的考慮，影響韓國對於兩個國家的威脅認知，促使韓國採取不同的外交戰略手法，產生韓美同盟「強化」、「維持」或「弱化」的不同結果。因此，在韓美同盟未來的發展中，威脅平衡理論將持續發揮主導的作用。

關鍵字

韓國外交戰略；韓美同盟；威脅平衡

並列摘要

The study aims to review the evolution of R.O.K.-U.S. alliance since Kim Tae-jung administration to Park Geun-hye administration by using threat balance theory. After the analyzing, the study argues that R.O.K.’s Diplomacy Strategy in this term still takes ”North Korea’s issue” and “R.O.K-U.S. alliance” as the cores. The changes of alliance in the Kim Tae-jung administration and Roh Moo-hyun administration originate from cognitive differences of the extent of North Korea’s threat, resulting in the weakening of the alliance. However, as North Korea’s nuclear issue heats up, R.O.K. government starts to modify the content of its diplomacy strategy, and made the threat cognition of North Korea between two countries same again, prompting the alliance relations were strengthened up to now. On the evolution of the internal relations, ideology is a basis for maintaining the alliance, and two policy tools, aid and exchange and transnational penetration, result from the changes in the alliance. The study suggests that the key to changing in R.O.K-U.S. alliance and R.O.K.’s diplomacy strategy affected by two aspects. One is the extent of North Korea’s threat, and the other is the attitude of China’s handling of North Korea issues. Considering these two aspects to makes R.O.K. alter the threat cognitive to two countries, and R.O.K. government would take different diplomacy strategy, bringing about the “strengthening”, ”maintain” or “weakening” of alliance relations. Therefore, in the future development of the R.O.K.’s Diplomacy Strategy and R.O.K-U.S. alliance, the threat balance theory would keep playing the leading role.