外部因素影響加密貨幣首次公開發行之研究

近年來區塊鏈已成為眾所矚目的焦點，而其中一項發展應用即是“首次貨幣發行”（Initial Coin Offering，以下簡稱ICO）。本研究旨在探討ICO的本質、特性與發展，並且針對募資成功及ICO失敗之不同案例進行研究，找出可能失敗之問題所在。ICO歷史雖然短但內容卻精彩，有人於過程中賺進榮華富貴；也有人於過程中財產盡失甚至失去生命。回顧所有ICO的項目中不妨有成功的、失敗的甚至惡意詐欺亦有，是否有哪些因素能使投資人辨認是否為優良籌資項目及避免遭受惡意傷害，並推論ICO未來可能發展之趨勢，同時以此提出相關建議。本研究採用文獻研究法及迴歸分析法。蒐集與此主題相關之重要案例進行研究，透過歷史資料分析歸納結果。研究結果發現ICO熱度確實受到比特幣價格影響市場，整體ICO市場仍然以比特幣為導向。另外，單一或少數國家之禁令僅短時間內會對ICO市場有影響，長期而言的效果是不明顯的。而在ICO、首次交易所貨幣發行（Initial Exchange Offering，以下簡稱IEO）及首次證券代幣發行（Security Token Offering，以下簡稱STO）三者之中，目前是以IEO發展最好有較高的籌資成功率，其投資的項目有較高機會實現應用及其加密貨幣能夠於市場上進行交易，且成功募集金額也在市場占比中有越來越高的趨勢。

關鍵字

區塊鏈；首次貨幣發行；首次交易所貨幣發行；首次證券代幣發行

並列摘要

In recent years, blockchain technology catches everyone’s eyes, and one of the related application is “Initial Coin Offering(ICO)”. This study tries to find out what kinds of external factors will affect ICO market, success rate and development. We study different successful ICO cases to figure out how those factors work. ICO makes fortune for some investors, but makes loss for the others. However, some of ICO projects are scams. This study discusses if governments could prevent scams growing by making laws. This study used literature research, case study and regression analysis. We collect data and important cases related to this topic for research and analyze the results through historical data. The trends of ICO are still concerned. This research found that the ICO fever is indeed affected by the price of bitcoin. The overall ICO market is still bitcoin-oriented, but the enthusiasm of the ICO market does not mean that it is related to the success rate of fundraising. In addition, the ban of a few countries will affect the ICO market only for a short period of time, but the long-term effect is not obvious. IEO is currently the best developed, and the projects in IEO have a higher chance to realize that their cryptocurrencies can be traded in the market.

並列關鍵字

Blockchain ； ICO ； IEO ； STO

參考文獻

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外部因素影響加密貨幣首次公開發行之研究

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