韓國大統領選舉的空間分析：以2012年與2017年文在寅的得票率為例

Spatial Analysis of the Korean Presidential Election: Moon Jae-in's Voting Rates in 2012 and 2017

金修湖(KIM Su-Ho)

指導教授 ： 林昌平

國立臺灣師範大學/國際與社會科學學院/東亞學系/碩士(2021年)

https://doi.org/10.6345/NTNU202100273

摘要

本研究透過空間分析方法應用，探討文在寅候選人的兩次大選結果的得票率與催票率差距，主要目的是希望說明得票率與催票率是否存在地域差異。這裡的催票率指的是得票數除以選舉人數，在選舉中催票率是比得票率更準確性的指標。此外，探討兩屆選舉文在寅候選人的得票率與催票率差距，以及影響文在寅得票率跟催票率的因素為何，並且朴槿惠彈劾事件以後對文在寅得票率與催票率是否存在影響。本研究利用空間分析研究方法進行韓國2012年跟2017年總統選舉的文在寅得票率與催票率的分析，以基礎韓國的自治團體為地理分析單位，利用韓國中央選舉委員會以及韓國統計門戶所釋出的資料，包含在2012-2017年間的人口密度、教育程度、經常所得、年齡、宗教、老年人的變數，觀察文在寅的得票率與催票率的相關性。
本研究以空間迴歸模型分析文在寅得票率與催票率，研究表示人口密度、經常所得及基督教人口比的變數對文在寅顯著正向影響，並且可知地域主義仍然是影響各政黨得票率的重要因素之一。因此，空間迴歸模型驗證，地域主義現象是韓國政治社會的問題，要如何消除地域之間的情感，是所有國民和總統候選人都要面對的課題。

關鍵字

文在寅 ； 催票率 ； 空間迴歸模型 ； 地域主義

並列摘要

Through the application of spatial analysis methods, this research explores the difference on voting rate and valid ballot rate between the two election results of Moon Jae-in president’s. The main purpose is to explain whether there is a regional difference between the vote rate and valid ballot rate. The valid ballot rate here refers to the number of votes divided by the number of electors. In an election, the valid ballot rate is a more accurate indicator than the voting rate. In addition, discuss the difference between the two-term election of Moon Jae-in’s president’s voting rate and the valid ballot rate, as well as the factors that affect Moon Jae-in's voting rate and the valid ballot rate, and after the impeachment of Park Geun-hye, the voting rate and the valid ballot rate of Moon Jae-in Whether there is an impact. This research uses spatial analysis research methods to analyze the voting rate and the valid ballot rate of Moon Jae-in in the 2012 and 2017 presidential elections in South Korea. Based on South Korea’s Lower level local autonomy, it uses the Korea National Election Commission(NEC) and the Korean Statistical Information Service(KOSIS). The released data includes the variables of population density, education level, regular income, age, religion, and elderly population between 2012 and 2017, and observes the correlation between Moon Jae-in's voting rate and the valid ballot rate.
This study uses a spatial regression model to analyze Moon Jae-in’s voting rate and the valid ballot rate. The study shows that the variables of population density, regular income, and Christian population ratio have a significant positive impact on Moon Jae-in, and finds that regionalism still one of the important factors affects the voting rate of various parties. Therefore, the spatial regression model verifies that the phenomenon of regionalism is a problem in South Korea’s political society, and how to eliminate emotions between regions is a topic that all citizens and presidential candidates must face.

並列關鍵字

Moon Jae-in ； valid ballot rate ； spatial regression model ； regionalism

參考文獻

參考文獻

王菲易

2010 〈韓國地域投票現象的歷史變遷：以總統選舉為例〉，《當代韓國》，春季號， 頁：20-26。

王綺年

2012 〈地域權力的空間化：以南韓區域發展為例〉，《都市與計劃》， 39卷 2期， 頁177-198。