正負框架、機率敘述方式及訊息形式對框架問題風險偏好之影響

The influence of framing, formats of probability and information on risk preference in risky choice

洪毓蘭(Hung Yu-Lan)

指導教授 ： 林正昌

國立臺灣師範大學/教育學院/教育心理與輔導學系/碩士(2016年)

https://doi.org/10.6345/NTNU202203939

摘要

本研究主要目的在於探討框架、機率敘述方式及訊息形式三個變項，在風險選擇框架問題是否影響受試者的風險偏好。除了正、負框架對於風險偏好之影響外，本研究認為在框架問題中，機率敘述方式以全有全無（全部獲救或全部死亡）或非全有全無式（部分獲救或部分死亡）、訊息形式以數字或文字呈現，皆可能影響框架效應的產生。另外，本研究也比較受試者在生命議題與金錢議題間的風險偏好行為是否一致。
本研究採用實驗法，以91名大學生做為受試者，與以往相關研究多使用選擇的反應模式不同，本研究採評分方式，讓受試者在不同的風險選擇框架情境下進行風險偏好之評分。研究發現主要有三：第一，在兩個議題皆顯示以數字訊息呈現非全有全無式之機率敘述方式，因增進受試者對框架問題之理解，而降低框架的影響；且以文字訊息詮釋框架問題的情境，會改變受試者的偏好行為。第二，就金錢議題各個框架問題來看，在正框架敘述下，數字訊息以全有全無方式呈現或文字訊息以非全有全無方式呈現，受試者偏好確定選項，而在生命議題無此傾向，顯示受試者在金錢議題有損失厭惡的態度。第三，受試者在生命議題與金錢議題上呈現不一致的決策行為，可能存在脈絡效應而影響本研究自變項之效果。本研究並對後續研究提供建議。

關鍵字

風險偏好 ； 框架 ； 機率形式 ； 文字訊息

並列摘要

The purpose of this study was to investigate the influence of framing, formats of probability and information on risk preference for risky choice. Besides the influence of gain/loss frame, the study suggests that the probabilities shown in two-outcome all-or-none (all survived or all dead) or non-all-or-none (some survived or some dead) risky prospect and the risky choice problems presented on numbers or words would lead to the variation on risky preference. In addition, this study compared the consistency of risky preferences on two agendas of human life and money. Ninety-one undergraduates responded to the variants of the Asian Disease Problem, and provided preference ratings for the options. The results were as follow: (1) No framing effect was observed not only when the probabilities were shown in outcome non-all-or-none numerically but also when the framing problem was presented with words. That indicates the two formats enhanced the participants’ comprehensions on the framing problem so that the framing effect was decreased. (2) When outcome involved money in the positive frame, participants preferred the sure-thing option not only when the probabilities were shown in outcome all-or-none numerically but also when the probabilities were shown in outcome non-all-or-none in words. Additionally, in comparison with the human life agenda, the preferences in the money agenda illustrate that participants are likely to take risk aversion. (3) The inconsistency of risky preferences for choice across two agendas shows that they would interact with other variables in the framing problem. The suggestions also provided for the further researches.

並列關鍵字

risk preference ； frame ； probability ； words

參考文獻

中文部分

陳烜之（民96）。認知心理學。臺北市：五南。

英文部分

Brase, G. L., Cosmides, L., & Tooby, J. (1998). Individuation, counting, and statistical inference: the role of frequency and whole-object representations in judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 127(1), 3-21.

Bruine de Bruin, W., Parker, A. M., & Fischhoff, B. (2007). Individual differences in adult decision-making competence. Journal of personality and social psychology, 92(5), 938-956.