以多屬性決策分析定義不同情境之次世代手機技術路徑圖

A Multi-Attribute Decision Making Based Scenario Analysis for Technology Roadmaps of Next Generation Handsets

麥真(MAI Chen)

指導教授 ： 黃啟祐

國立臺灣師範大學/科技與工程學院/工業教育學系科技應用管理碩士在職專班/碩士(2022年)

https://doi.org/10.6345/NTNU202201682

摘要

次世代手機整合包括大規模多輸入多輸出(Multiple-Input Multiple-Output，MIMO)、超高密度網路(ultra-dense networks)、移動網絡、裝置間通訊(device-to-device communication)等先進通訊技術，以滿足未來行動通訊數據量大幅成長以及各類新應用。由於技術複雜，次世代手機的開發，需要溝通和協調，以追求效率。
技術路徑圖(Technology Roadmap)是一種呈現各種與產品開發相關技術的圖示方法，可用於協調研發活動。因此，自從1980年代美國摩托羅拉(Motorola)公司提出技術路徑圖之概念後，已經廣為科技業與其他產業所採用。然而，少有學者嘗試考慮，不同情境下，應有不同之技術路線圖，但此種考量非常務實，對科技廠商而言，非常重要，對於生命週期短、技術變遷快之次世代手機廠商來說，更是如此。
因此，本研究擬提出一個基於多屬性決策方法的分析框架，採用基於決策實驗室的分析網絡流程Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) based analytic network process (DANP)和修正式多準則最佳化妥協解法(Vlsekriterijumska Optimizacija I KOmpromisno Resenje，VIKOR)，評估未來最可能之情境。於發展情境之後，將使用基於多目標決策規劃的能力集擴展法，為次世代手機訂定不同情境之下的技術路徑圖。
本研究將以某全球資訊科技領導廠商之次世代手機開發為例，邀集專家，提供意見，實證分析架構之可行性。依據實證研究結果，次世代手機之技術路徑圖包含處理器、毫米波等元件與應用軟體，發展情境分別為繁榮、成長和趨緩等三種情境與對應之技術路徑圖，可以做為手機業者發展次世代行動電話之依據。

關鍵字

技術預測 ； 情境分析 ； 宏觀環境分析模型 ； 目標決策分析 ； 能力集合擴展

並列摘要

The design of next-generation mobile phones integrates numerous techniques, including large-scale multi-input and multi-output (MIMO), ultra-dense networks, moving networks and device-to-device communication advance communication technologies. The integration of novel techniques aims to meet the mobile data volume growth and all kinds of new applications. Due to the complexity of the technology, the development of next-generation mobile phones requires communication and coordination in order to pursue efficiency.
Technology roadmap is a graphical approach to present various technologies related to the product development and can be used to coordinate research and development (R&D). Therefore, since Motorola introduced the concept of technology roadmap in the 1980s, it has been widely adopted by the technology industry and other industries. However, few scholars have tried to consider that there should be different technology roadmaps in different contexts, but such considerations are very pragmatic and important for technology manufacturers, especially for the next-generation cellphone manufacturers with short life cycles and fast-changing technologies.
Therefore, this study aims to propose an analytic framework based on multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques. The Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) based analytic network process (DANP) and the modified VIšekriterijumsko KOmpromisno Rangiranje (VIKOR) method will be adopted for evaluating possible scenarios. Competence set expansion method based on multi-objective decision making will be used to for next generation handsets in different scenarios.
This study will take the next-generation handset development of a leading global (IT) company as an example and invite experts to provide opinions and empirical evidence to analyze the feasibility of the framework. According to the results from empirical research, the technology roadmap of the next-generation handsets includes central processing unit (CPU), millimeter wave (mmWave), other components, the application software. The derived scenarios include the prosperity, the growth, and the slow-growth. Technology roadmaps for each scenario is also developed. The analytic results from this study can serve as the basis for the development of the next-generation handsets.

並列關鍵字

Technology Forecasting ； Scenario Analysis ； PESTEL Analysis ； Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) ； Multi Objective Decision Analysis, Competence Set Expansion

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