應用動態迴歸分析預測台灣人口總量及財務因應策略

本研究旨在探討台灣人口量和財務因應策略，研究對象以台灣人口量為樣本，隨著醫療的進步老年人口逐漸增加產生高齡化社會，但世代的改變人們觀念逐漸變化，教育程度提升，養兒防老觀念消失導致人們不再生小孩，生育率下降變成少子化社會。衍生人口量銳減的問題，人口量減少將導致許多問題產生勞動力因少子化和高齡化衝擊之下而大量下降而產生社會各方面和國內生產毛額、國民所得、儲蓄、經濟成長率蕭條。在高齡化社會中我們需探討將退休年齡延後和健全年金制度，少子化社會因為女性意識提升老舊觀念已經跟不上時代我們須以新觀念來替代，使得女性生育率提高，人口量會有所提升，本文利用應用動態分析為各構面的情形來分析預測台灣人口量和財務策略，而產生結果台灣人口量會持續減少，我們須持續研究和探討如何提升我國人口量和健全財務。

關鍵字

高齡化；少子化；應用動態分析；人口量

並列摘要

The purpose of this study is to explore Taiwan's population volume and financial response strategy, the study object to Taiwan population as a sample, with the progress of medical care, the elderly population gradually increased to produce an aging society, but the generational change of people's concept gradually changed, education level increased, the concept of child-rearing and prevention of old age disappeared leading to people no longer have children, the decline of fertility rate into a low-birth rate society. The problem of the sharp decline of the derived population will lead to a large decline in the labour force due to the impact of childlessness and the impact of the elderly, resulting in a depression in the gross domestic production, national income, savings and economic growth rate. In the aging society we need to explore the retirement age to be extended and improve the annuity system, the young children's society because women's consciousness to raise the old concept and can not keep up with the times we have to replace with new ideas, so that the female fertility rate increases, the population will be increased, this Applying Dynamic Regression Analysis for the various structures of the situation to analyze and predict Taiwan's population volume financial strategy, and the result of Taiwan's population will continue to reduce, we must continue to explore how to improve Taiwan's population and improve the financial.