利用可靠度模型分析台灣未來人口總量對我國經濟之衝擊

人口為國家構成的基本要素之一，人口數量及年齡結構的變化為決定國家發展的重要關鍵。了解未來人口發展趨勢，可做為政府相關機關在擬定人口、教育、勞動力、產業發展、都市住宅、社會服務及醫療服務等相關政策之規劃依據。由於教育擴張、不婚、晚婚或是勞動參與等社會因素影響和價值觀轉變，造成婦女的平均生育年齡不斷延後，甚至擔心無法支付子女的費用而不敢生育，種種因素導致人口出生率不斷下降。死亡率亦為人口學重要的一環，多數人口成長議題以人口出生率與遷移率為切入探討，忽略死亡率也是影響總人口數消長趨勢關鍵之一。可靠度代表某項特定功能於指定的環境中，正常運作之機率，能夠呈現特徵值經過一段時間後的表現。本研究藉由可靠度函數瞭解死亡率改善對台灣人口趨勢的影響，以及對經濟的衝擊。

關鍵字

人口出生率；人口死亡率；可靠度分析；人口發展趨勢

並列摘要

Population is one of the basic elements of a country's composition, and changes in the number of people and the age structure are important to determine the development of a country Understanding the development of future population can be used as the planning basis for relevant government agencies in formulating related policies such as population, education, labor, industrial development, urban housing, social services and medical services.. Due to the expansion of education, non-marriage, late marriage, or labor participation and other social factors and changes in values, the average of women's childbearing age has been delayed, and even fear of being unable to pay for their children and daring to give birth, various factors have led to a declining birth rate. Mortality is also an important part of demography. Most of the population growth issues are discussed in terms of birth rate and migration rate. Ignoring mortality is also one of the key factors affecting the growth and decline of the total population. Reliability represents the probability that a particular function will operate normally in a specified environment, and it will be able to show the performance of the characteristic value over a period of time. This study uses reliability functions to understand the impact of improved mortality on Taiwan's population trends and the impact on the economy.