本文蒐集2000年至2010年台灣上市櫃公司發生信用風險與對照正常公司(合計86家)非家族企業,建立企業信用風險模型(Credit Risk Models)。 考慮代理問題(Agency Problems),找出影響公司績效之顯著變數,儘可能在公司尚未發生財務風險(Financial Risk)前,預測出可能發生之機率,達事前預警與風險管理(Risk Management)之效。實證分析上,利用K-S檢定、M-U檢定與Logit信用風險模型,針對非家族業是否專業經營,探討比較其差異。實證結果發現,當董事長兼總經理可降低代理問題,其預測準確率較高;專業經營應降低負債比率,儘早實施公司治理(Corporate Governance)設立獨立董監事(內部人)、重視會計師(CPAs)查核意見(外部人),值得投資人作為投資決策之參考。因此本文之實證價值與管理意涵為,非家族業專業經營實施公司治理設立獨立董監事、重視會計師查核意見,增強公司治理能力,進而提高股東權益報酬率ROE,公司獲利能力增加,並降低發生信用風險的可能性。
This research collected data of Taiwan’s publicly listed non-family companies that had experienced credit risk attacks during 2000-2010 period, together with data for a control group in the same period (a total of 86 companies). The objective of this study is to establish a credit risk model for non-family companies. In this study, agency problems were discussed and evaluated. This research tried to find variables that might make it possible to predict in advance the probability of a financial risk so as to establish an eraly warning system for non-family companies and to buttress their risk management. Statistical procedures such as K-S tests, M-U tests and logit regressions model were performed to determine whether the separation of ownership from management could affect a company’s overall performance. Empirical results from this study show that when the ownership is combined with management, the company would be free from agency problems, and its prediction accuracy rate higher. Lessons learned from this research are: For non-family companies, the CEO should reduce debt-equity ratio, institute independent directors and supervisors (insider), heed auditing advices and opinions from a CPA (outsider), in order to improve corporate governance and obtain higher ROE and to minimize the probability of a credit risk.