兩階段開放陸客對台灣國際觀光旅館經營效率之研究

本文運用二次項多元迴歸分析為研究工具，探討台灣國際觀光旅館經營效率之變化是否與兩階段開放陸客來台觀光有關。本研究以客房住用率（OCR）為被解釋變數，探討休閒旅客之比重（P/T）、陸客佔休閒旅客比重（M/P），或是自由行陸客比重大幅增加，是否會導致觀光旅館客房部門出現經營無效率之現象。本研究發現，P/T超過門檻值0.5599後發生OCR下降的現象，此一轉折可能與開放陸客來台與來台陸客大幅且快速增加有關，使得台灣國際觀光旅館客房部門之經營一時之間難以因應，導致經營效率下降。由於旅館產業本身具有明顯之區位特性，若休閒旅客比例過高時，也可能因遊程規劃過度集中於同一地區，導致該地國際觀光旅館訂房客滿，而其他地區國際觀光旅館乏人問津；因此，本研究建議業者及政府部門應積極規劃，均衡發展台灣北部、中部、南部及東部之觀光遊程規劃，使得各地客房供需能夠均衡發展，提高整體住用率。

關鍵字

國際觀光旅館；客房住用率；經營效率；二次項多元迴歸

並列摘要

By using quadratic functions multiple regression model as a research tool, this study discusses whether the changes of the operation performance of Taiwan’s international tourist hotels are related to two-stage deregulation for Chinese tourists. This study takes occupancy rate（OCR） as the explained variable to discuss whether the substantial increase of the ratio of pleasure-visitor to total-visitor（P/T）, the ratio of Mainland-visitor to pleasure-visitor（M/P） and the ratio of free and independent travelers from Mainland China to Mainland-visitor（F/M） will lead to the phenomenon of operating inefficiencies of tourist hotel room division. We find that when P/T exceeds the threshold value 0.5599, OCR would begin to decrease. This transition may be related to deregulation for Chinese tourists and the substantial and rapid increase of China tourists. The operation of Taiwan’s international tourist hotels room division is so difficult to respond it timely that operation performance decreased. The hotel industry has obvious regionalism. The high ratio of pleasure-visitor will cause the full reservations of the lacal international tourist hotels due to excessive concentration of tourism planning in the same area. Therefore, this paper suggest that the hotel owners and the authorities should plan proactively and develop balancedly the tour around Taiwan to improve the whole occupancy rate.