開放陸客來台與台灣上市櫃觀光旅館獲利能力之間關聯性之研究

本研究以台灣上市、上櫃之七家國際觀光旅館（華園、國賓、六福、第一、晶華、亞都、老爺知本）為對象，採用交通部觀光局公佈之台灣區觀光旅館營運統計月報及台灣經濟新報（TEJ）財經資料庫記錄之公司營運資料，採樣期間則以觀光局營運統計月報揭示陸客來台觀光人數之日為分隔點，將上市櫃國際觀光旅館劃分成二個不同時期之樣本群組：民國九十五年到九十七年（開放陸客來台前），與九十八年到一百年（開放陸客來台後）。本研究參考以往文獻設計之變數，採用包括一個總體經濟變數（匯率）、二個產業趨勢變數（搭機來台旅客人數、來台休閒旅客佔來台旅客總數比率）與五個公司政策變數在內之八個解釋變數：客房住用率、平均房價、旅館其他收入佔旅館總收入比率、旅館客房部人員與旅館總員工人數比、外國旅客佔旅館住客總人數比等，再加上兩個新設計的變數，代表旅館主要營收比重之餐飲收入佔旅館總收入比率，以及代表對陸客倚重程度之陸客佔旅館住客總人數比，以縱橫資料迴歸為研究工具，探討這些變數在開放陸客來台前、後，對上市、上櫃國際觀光旅館獲利能力（以總資產報酬率ROA及股東權益報酬率ROE為指標）之影響。本研究發現，十個解釋變數中，陸客來台前，搭機來台旅客人數、客房住用率以及餐飲收入佔總收入比率等三個變數是上市上櫃國際觀光旅館管理階層最應重視的重要決策變數；陸客來台後，匯率、客房住用率以及平均房價是上市上櫃觀光旅館管理階層最應重視的重要決策變數。根據實證結果及發現，本研究針對影響顯著之解釋變數，深入探討其管理意涵，並在結論中提供建議，作為旅館管理階層制定決策之參考。

關鍵字

開放陸客來台；國際觀光旅館；獲利能力；總資產報酬率；股東權益報酬率；縱橫資料迴歸

並列摘要

This study treated 7 listed international tourist hotels in Taiwan (Hotel Holiday Garden, Ambassador Hotel, Leofoo Hotel, First Hotel, Regent Taipei, The Landis Hotel and Hotel Royal Chihpen) as subjects, and adopted the Monthly Report on Tourist Hotel Operations in Taiwan released by the Tourism Bureau of Ministry of Transportation and Communications, as well as the hotel operational data in the database of Taiwan Economic Journal (TEJ). Using the date when the Monthly Report on Tourist Hotel Operations has formally recorded the number of the Chinese tourists arrived Taiwan as the separation, this study divides the listed international tourist hotels into two groups of samples according to two separated periods: from 2006 to 2008 (before the deregulation policy on inbound Chinese tourists) and from 2009 to 2011 (after the deregulation policy on inbound Chinese tourists). According to the variables proposed by previous studies, this study adopts eight explanatory variables, including one macroeconomic variable (exchange rate), two industrial trend variable (number of tourists arrived Taiwan by flights and the ratio of pleasure tourists to total tourists) and five corporate policy variables (occupancy rate, average room price, ratio of other revenues of the hotel in total revenues of the hotel, ratio of number of employees in room department to number of total employees of a hotel, ratio of foreign tourists to total tourists of a hotel). There are also two new variables, ratio of hospitality revenue of main revenue to total revenue of a hotel and the ratio of Chinese tourists to total tourists of a hotel, which indicates the dependency on the Chinese tourists. Using Panel Data Regression as the research tool, this study probes for the effects of the variables on profit capability (both ROA and ROE are the indicators) of the listed international tourist hotels before and after the deregulation policy Chinese tourists. This study finds: before the deregulation policy for Chinese tourists, among ten explanatory variables, number of tourists arrived Taiwan by flights, occupancy rate and ratio of room revenue to total revenue are the most important decision-making variables for the C.E.O. of the listed international tourist hotels. After the deregulation policy for Chinese tourists, exchange rate, occupancy rate and average room price are the most critical decision-making variables for the C.E.O. of the listed international tourist hotels. According to empirical findings, this study disclosures the managerial implication of the significantly influential explanatory variables, and provides the suggestions in the conclusion as the references for the decision making of hotels, C.E.Os..