以旅遊地區生命週期理論比較澳門、新加坡與台灣之博弈產業發展

近年來觀光遊憩結合賭場的商業模式亦成為觀光業的發展趨勢，博奕的經營方式更是從一個純粹的賭場遊戲，轉變為一種商業、休閒及娛樂的活動，使得博奕在觀光產業中成為不可或缺的一環。本研究以澳門、新加坡及台灣三地做比較個案研究，利用Butler(1980)所提出的旅遊地區生命週期(TALC)理論，探討三地區在博奕觀光產業的發展；以政府政策與企業投資作為內生變數，以經濟與自然災害作為外生變數來確定各地區的博奕發展階段、轉變和未來可能的發展路線，並以序列方式指出引起各階段改變的關鍵事件。研究結果顯示，三地區位於TALC 六個週期上不同的位置。新加坡博奕發展係檢視澳門模式，針對社會議題做了充分的宣導，澳門經過十幾年來對賭博的容忍，其社會問題爭議變小。相反的澎湖公投的失敗，顯示出道德立場仍有可能擊敗商業考量，但博奕發展的中斷，也迫使領導人去開發替代的旅遊方案。此三地區所採取的方式，證明了透過產業內政府和企業決策，以及經過社會輿論、結構性事件和其它外在因素來做機械式的改變。TALC 理論需加入供給面及需求面，使其線性發展模式更精進。

關鍵字

旅遊地區生命週期理論；博弈產業；台灣；新加坡；澳門

並列摘要

Butler’s (1980) theory of Tourism Area Life Cycles (TALC) has undergone much debate and withstood much criticism to remain one of the most robust conceptual approaches to interpreting resort development. The recent and future development of casino resorts in Macao, Singapore and Taiwan offer an ideal opportunity to revisit the TALC model as the three territories would ostensibly be positioned at different points on Butler’s six-stage cycle. This paper identifies the stage of their respective resort development, transitions, and possible future trajectories by examining endogenous variables like government policies and business investments, and exogenous variables like economic and natural disasters. The comparison is expected to suggest if the TALC is more likely to be organic with a life of its own, or mechanistic with forced changes effected by political or commercial decisions. The authors also expect that, to understand the casino developments in Macao, Singapore and Taiwan adequately, the TALC theory, evolutionary linear life cycle, needs to be shored up with investigation of supply-side phenomena such as opportunities and options for development and demand-side factors such as tourists’ movements or choice of destinations.