集團業專業經營、公司治理與信用風險模型
之實證研究

本文針對2000年至2011年集團與非集團發生信用風險(Credit Risk)之上市櫃公司為樣本，共計集團53家，非集團43家，合計96家。利用統計科學方法建構集團業專業經營之信用風險模型(Credit Risk Models)，考慮集團企業當經營權與所有權開產生之代理問題，找出專業經理人專業經營影響公司績效之顯著變數。期望提供投資人、金融機構及利害關係人，事前預測可能發生財務風險(Financial Risk)之機率，降低財務風險損失(Financial Risk Loss)，進而增加公司價值。實證分析上，利用K-S test，M-U test以及建立Logistic信用風險模型。實證結果發現，當經營權與所有權分開，CEO專業經營，集團業方面：影響公司績效有財務結構、償債能力、經營能力、獲利能力、現金流量與公司治理等指標；儘早提高利息保障倍數與現金流量允當比率，可增強償債與經營能力，降低財務風險發生的機率；降低利息支出率及提高現金流量比率，以因應短期內所面臨的資金缺口問題；專業經理人(CEO)避免更換會計師並設置獨立董監事，公司治理能力增強，提高公司績效。影響非集團公司績效主要有財務結構、償債能力、經營能力、獲利能力與現金流量指標；非集團業調整股利政策，降低現金再投資比率、每股盈餘(EPS)、內部保留比率，降低發生信用風險的機率；提高存貨週轉率、固定資產週轉率、營業利益率與現金流量允當比率，可增強公司獲利能力。因此，本文之實證價值與管理意涵，集團業專業經營，避免更換會計師並設置獨立董監事，提高公司治理能力，降低公司發生信用風險的可能性。

關鍵字

專業經營；代理問題；公司治理；信用風險模型

並列摘要

In this study, the survey sample consisted of Group 53 and Non-Group 43 from the Credit Risk companies in 2000-2011. Using statistical methods to construct Group professional credit risk models, considering the agency problems generated by the management and ownership operated separately, to find the CEO Power of Chief Executive Officer, CEO significantly affect the variables of company's performance. Expectations of investors, financial institutions and stakeholders to predict the probability of financial risks may occur, reducing the possibility of financial risk loss, thus increasing corporate value. For empirical analysis, K-S test, M-U test and Logistic credit risk models were established.The empirical results suggest that, when the management and ownership separated, the CEO power for Group would influence the corporate performance on financial structure, solvency, management ability, profitability, cash flow and the indicators of corporate governance; as soon as possible to improve the ratio of interest coverage and cash flow adequacy can enhance debt service and management capacity, reduce the possibility of financial risk; reduce the rates of interest expense and improve the ratio of cash flow to face the problem of the funding gap in the short term; The Professional managers (CEO) avoid the replacement of the accountant and set up the directors and supervisors independently, enhancing the ability of corporate governance, improving corporate performance. The main impact on the performance of non-group companies are financial structure, solvency, management ability, profitability and the indicators of cash flow. The Non-Group companies adjust the policy of dividend, reducing the ratio of cash reinvestment, earnings per share (EPS), the ratio of internal reserves, reducing the occurrence probability of credit risk; increasing inventory turnover, fixed asset turnover, operating profit margin and the ratio of cash flow adequacy can enhance the company's profitability. Therefore, the empirical value and managerial implications of this study, the CEO Power of Group's companies avoids the replacement of the accountant and sets up the directors and supervisors independently can improve corporate governance, and reduce the possibility of credit risk.