加入公司治理與家族業信用風險之實證研究

摘　　要本文利用Logistic迴歸建構出企業信用風險模型(Credit Risk Models)，找出家族業發生財務危機的因素，希望於財務危機發生前，提前預測可能發生財務危機的機率，達到事前預警與風險管理的效果。實證分析上，使用財務資訊變數與公司治理變數(非財務資訊變數)作為解釋變數，進行常態性檢定、平均數檢定與Logistic迴歸模型分析，篩選出財務資訊變數與公司治理變數以作為家族業財務預警之用。本文蒐集2000年至2012年台灣上市櫃控制型態為家族業之公司，干擾變數係考慮公司資本結構負債比率大於50%，利用Pearson相關檢定和二元Logistic逐步迴歸法消除共線性選取顯著變數，再設定含財務資訊變數之模型一及含財務資訊和公司治理變數之模型二，使用Logistic迴歸模型分析之，檢測加入公司治理變數後能否提升對財務危機預測的能力。實證結果發現，影響公司績效的主要財務指標包涵財務結構、償債能力和經營能力，加入公司治理變數後之預測準確率提高，此結果可做為投資人於投資決策時參考之用。管理者應妥善做好資金配置及避免董事長兼任總經理，將可改善家族業之財務結構與增強公司治理能力；提高應收帳款週轉率、固定資產週轉率與現金流量允當比率，將可提升家族業之經營能力與公司績效。關鍵詞： Logistic迴歸、公司治理、財務資訊、資本結構

關鍵字

Logistic迴歸；公司治理；財務資訊；資本結構

並列摘要

Abstract This study used logistic regression to build enterprise credit risk models, and determine the factors in financial crises of family business, in order to predict the probability of probable financial crises in advance before the financial crises occur, thus achieving the effect of early warning and risk management. In empirical analysis, the financial information variable and corporate governance variable (non-financial information variable) were used as explanatory variables for normality test, mean test and logistic regression model analysis, so as to screen out financial information variable and corporate governance variable for financial early warning of family business. This study collects the listed firms of Taiwan in the control form of family business between 2000 and 2012. The distubance variable was the corporate capital structure debt ratio being greater than 50%. The Pearson correlation test and binary logistic stepwise regression were used to eliminate colinearity and select significant variables. The Model I containing financial information variable and the Model II containing financial information and corporate governance variables were set and analyzed by logistic regression model, so as to test whether the additional corporate governance variable can improve the capability of predicting financial crises. The empirical result showed that the main financial indicators influencing the company performance include financial structure, debt paying ability and operation capacity. The forecast accuracy rate was increased after the corporate governance variable is added in. This result can serve as a reference for investors to decide investments. The managers should allocate the capital properly and avoid the president serving as the general manager concurrently, so as to improve the financial structure of family business and enhance the corporate governance capability. By increasing the accounts receivable turnover, fixed asset turnover and cash flow adequacy ratio, the operation capacity and company performance of family business can be enhanced. Keywords: Logistic regression; corporate governance; financial information; capital structure