兩岸經濟合作框架協議早收清單對臺灣經濟影響？

臺灣政府在簽訂ECFA前認為「東協加『n』」是確定的區域整合趨勢，ECFA的簽署會使臺灣不至於在此潮流中邊緣化。並宣稱對於實施ECFA滿一年之效益將逐步全面顯現，但ECFA實行時間已近兩年，臺灣企業全球佈局，卻逐步演變成「以中國為軸心」的模式，臺灣廠商利用ECFA的優惠赴中國投資的速度加劇，加速產業外移中國，整體臺灣經濟成長卻在亞洲國家敬陪末座，失業率高居不下，勞工薪資停滯不進，房地產因預期效應而逐漸攀高，間接也證實當時所做之研究有誇大之嫌，即使臺灣需要走出被邊緣化的危機，ECFA是否是個有效的策略? ECFA的簽訂對臺灣產業可能造成的衝擊也是關注焦點。因此本研究採用引力模型分析探討臺灣與中國簽訂ECFA前後雙邊貿易流量是否具有顯著提升(即貿易創造亦或是貿易轉向效果)，以改善CGE模型只能分析事前貿易狀況，無法以動態方式分析事後貿易狀況，並根據兩種模型所分析之數據，指出原有模型所未能推估到的結果，最後，並論述東協、中國大陸與臺灣所呈現以中國大陸為中心，對中國大陸特別有利的三角關係，是很大程度決定ECFA推動後的實際狀況出現很大落差的結構性理由。論文最後也依據分析結果，提出具體政策建議，以供政府及產業界參考。

關鍵字

區域整合；經濟合作架構協議；引力模型

並列摘要

Before signing of ECFA that "ASEAN+N"," regional integration is to identify trend, ECFA's signing will not make Taiwan's marginalization in this trend. And claiming at least one year for the implementation of ECFA will gradually receive benefit fully apparent, but for almost two years the implementation of ECFA on Taiwan enterprises globally, sooner will be evolved into a "China-axis" model, for the use of Taiwanese manufacturers went into ECFA preferential Chinese investment gradually accelerate industrial relocation China, hence the overall economic growth in Taiwan last place in Asian countries of high unemployment and stagnant wages of labor into real estate in anticipation effect gradually rising. Then, made indirectly also confirmed the research exaggerating, even need to get out of being marginalized in Taiwan crisis, ECFA is a valid strategy? ECFA signing on the impact of Taiwan's industrial might also focus. Therefore, we apply the gravity model to discuss before signing ECFA between Taiwan and China to improve bilateral trade flows. For example, trade creation or trade diversion effect to improve the CGE model by analyzing beforehand trading position. Due to unable to dynamically analyze afterwards trading conditions and analyzed according to two models of data, pointing out that the original model failed to estimate the results. Finally, on the issue of ASEAN, China and Taiwan to mainland China presented as the center, is particularly advantageous for the Chinese mainland the triangular relationship is largely decided by the ECFA's actual conditions that promote the great divide structural reasons. We are also based on the final results of the analysis putting forward concrete policy recommendations for government and industry reference.