高槓桿傳統產業、外部人會計師與公司績效之實證研究

本研究旨在運用財務資訊及科學統計的方法,針對負債比率大於50%的高槓桿傳產業(Traditional Enterprise),建構一套信用風險模型(Credit Risk Model),找出影響企業經營績效的顯著變數,在企業未發生信用風險之前,預估企業可能發生信用風險的機率,以降低投資人、公司股東財務上損失的風險,並作為銀行對企業放款的參考依據,達到事前預警與風險管理之效。實證分析上,運用財務變數、公司治理變數作為本研究的解釋變數,進行K-S常態性檢定、M-U平均數檢定、Pearson相關性檢定及VIF共線性檢定,進而運用二元羅吉斯迴歸分析(Binary Logistic Regression Analysis),採用逐步迴歸法建立信用風險模型。實證結果顯示,影響高槓桿傳產業經營績效的指標,分別是財務結構、償債能力、經營能力、獲利能力、現金流量及公司治理(Corporate Governance)指標。研究建議, 高槓桿傳產業之融資決策,宜先行降低利息費用(增加利息支出率),則稅後淨利增加,總資產報酬率(ROA)增加;提高高槓桿傳產業資金周轉與收帳能力、增加營業活動淨現金流量並減少流動負債(提高現金流量比率)。實證價值與管理意涵,當董事長兼任總經理(無代理問題),會計師查核意見其勝算比率(Odds Ratio)高達372.22,意指若會計師簽註保留意見,每增加一單位效果,高槓桿傳產業發生信用風險機會增幅371.22倍,效果最為顯著,因此,高槓桿傳產業,重視會計師查核意見,避免更換會計師,增強公司外部監控(Outsider Monitoring)與公司治理能力,降低公司發生信用風險機率,進而提高公司績效。關鍵詞：高槓桿傳產業、外部監控、財務預測、信用風險模型。

關鍵字

高槓桿傳產業；外部監控；財務預測；信用風險模型

並列摘要

The main aim of this study is to help highly leveraged traditional enterprises whose debt ratio are greater than 50% to construct the Credit Risk Model that can achieve the effects of warning in advance and risk management by using the financial information and scientific statistical methods. We find the significant variables which impact on the performances of the business administration to estimate the probability of the credit risk that may occur before the credit risk occurs in order to reduce the risk of the loss to finance for investors and shareholders and be a point of reference for banks to make a loan to the traditional enterprises. As for empirical analysis, we use financial variables and business management variables as eXplanatory variables to do K-S normality test, M-U average test, and Pearson correlation test in sequence. According to Binary Logistic Regression Analysis, we use stepwise regression to establish a credit risk model. Empirical results show there are siX indicators which impact on the performances of the business administration for highly leveraged traditional enterprises -- financial structure, solvency, viability, profitability, cash flow and corporate management. This study suggests the financial policies of highly leveraged traditional enterprises should be lowing interest fee -- increasing interest eXpense ratio at first so that it could raise gross profit, property award ratio, accounts receivable turnover ratio, and cash flow ratio. As for the empirical values and managerial implications, when the chairman is the general manager, the odds ratio of accountants’ eXamining qualified opinions reaches at 372.22. It means the probability of the credit risk for highly leveraged traditional enterprises raise 371.22 times if accountants comment on qualified opinions. Hence, highly leveraged traditional enterprises should respect accountants’ eXamining qualified opinions, avoid replacing the accountants, and strengthen eXternal supervising and corporate management to reduce the ratio of the credit risk and improve the performances of the business administration. Keywords: Highly leveraged 、Traditional Enterprises、 EXternal Supervising, Financial Forecast、 The Credit Risk Model.