高槓桿集團業，公司治理與公司績效之實證研究

本研究旨在利用二元與多元Logit迴歸統計科學方法，建構高槓桿集團業財務預警模型（Financial Eariy-Warning Models）。期能在集團業尚未發生信用風險（Credit Risk）前，事先預測出可能發生之機率，找出影響公司績效之顯著變數，降低公司財務損失，達到財務預警與風險管理之效。實證分析上，以2000年至2013年台灣上市櫃之集團業為主，其負債比率大於50%，進一步區分董事長是否兼任總經理，利用28個財務比率變數，4個公司治理變數作解釋變數，進行K-S常態性檢定、M-U平均數檢定、VIF相關檢定與建立Logit迴歸模型。實證結果顯示，高槓桿集團業存在金字塔型結構與交叉持股特性，無論董事長是否兼任總經理，影響公司績效的指標均為經營能力與獲利能力指標。當董事長兼任總經理時（無代理問題），高槓桿集團業之營運策略宜先行增加營業收入，並降低營業成本（則營業毛利提高），同時提高了存貨週轉率（營業成本卅平均存貨），可增強公司經營與獲利能力，降低公司發生信用風險的可能性。當董事長未兼任總經理時（存在代理問題），高槓桿集團業之營運策略宜先行提高稅後淨利與利息費用、降低平均資產總額（總資產報酬率、稅後淨利率提高），同時增加集團業資金週轉與收帳能力（應收帳款週轉率提高），則稅後純益增加（ROE提高），可增強公司經營與獲利能力，降低公司發生信用風險的機率。實證價值與管理意涵，高槓桿集團業實施公司治理，無論董事長是否兼任總經理，都應注重強化公司的經營能力與提高獲利能力，來降低信用風險發生之機率，進而提高公司績效。關鍵詞 : 高槓桿集團業、金字塔型結構、交叉持股、財務風險管理。

關鍵字

高槓桿集團業；金字塔型結構；交叉持股；財務風險管理

並列摘要

Based on Logistic regression analysis, this study is aimed to build a financial early-warning model for high-financial leverage companies in order to reduce the credit risk, identify factors that can prominently improve the company performance and reduce the financial loss. The analysis was performed based on financial data collected from listed companies in Taiwan from year 2000 to 2013; companies with greater than 50% debt ratios are further divided into two groups depending on whether the chairman and CEO is the same person. Our model considered 28 financial variables and 4 management variables, which were analyzed based on K-S, M-U and VIF tests and logit regression model. Our results indicate that there exist pyramid-shaped organization structural and interlocking shareholding characteristics for the high-financial leverage companies. Regardless of whether the chairman and CEO being the same person, a company’s performance is highly dependent on the leadership management skills and establishment of profitability guidelines. While the chairman and CEO is the same person, the management priorties are to increase the operating income, reduce the business costs, and at the same time increase the inventory turnover (operating cost/average inventory). By doing so, we anticipate a company to enhance its management and earning capacity while reducing the credit risk. Contraily, if the chairman and CEO is not the same person (there exists principal-agent problems), set the management priorties as increasing the after tax net income ratio and interest, and reducing the averaged general assets (return on total asset and increase in after tax income ratio). At the same time, a company should enhance its financing and debt collection capacity (increase the receivable turnoever rate) and increase ROE in order to reduce the credit risk. Finally, in either case (whether or not the chairman and CEO being the same person), high-financial leaverage companies should focus on strengthen the management, leadership capability and profitability in order to reduce credit risk and improve financial performance. Keywords: High-financial leaverage companies,Pyramid structure,Cross-hodlings,Financial risk management.