人格特質因子與情緒因子對投資行為影響之研究

Personality and sentiment on investment behavior

李銘尉(Ming-Way Li)

指導教授 ： 林泉源

共同指導教授 ： 翁興利

國立臺北大學/商學院/企業管理學系/博士(2010年)

摘要

1980 年代後期以降，由於傳統財務理論無法詳細解釋各種市場異常現象(anomalies) ，Kahneman and Tverskey (1979)提出的展望理論(prospect theory) 說明個人常常存在認知的偏誤(cognitive bias)，這些認知偏誤會導致投資人的決策產生偏差。個人之所以產生投資方面的偏誤，通常來自於人格特質與情緒因子，本研究即分別對人格特質與情緒因子進行研究，希望能瞭解這兩個因素是否會導致投資人的決策產生差異性。

第一個研究透過行為醫學的基礎，主要直接測量基因對人格特質是否造成影響，進一步驗證是否會影響個人投資態度。研究分別針對多巴胺乙型接受器基因(DRD2 TaqI A)與血清素運轉子基因(5-HTTLPR)將投資人進行分組檢測，研究這兩種類型基因是否會影響個人投資態度與行為，研究結果如下：

(一)擁有DRD2 TaqI-A1+對偶基因者有比較高的酬償反應、較高的情緒波動程度、較高的尋求新奇(novelty seeking)特質、較低的行為抑制（Ｂehavioral Inhibition ）與較高的風險態度。
(二)5-HTTLPR 基因型為L/L者有比較高的酬償反應與較低的行為抑制。
(三)投資者具有DDR2 Taq1 A1+基因時，搭配5-HTTLPR L/L型組的基因會有較高的酬償反應、報酬快樂程度、虧損難過程度、保留虧損張數、尋求新奇與新奇投資，但會有較低的行為抑制能力。

第二個研究在探討情緒對於投資行為造成的影響，過去少數文獻證實一個國家在國際體育運動的成敗可能會對投資人情緒造成影響，稱之為國家勝利效應。本研究透過我國國家棒球隊在國際比賽戰績的成敗來研究是否會對投資人情緒產生影響，並進一步影響投資決策，研究結果如下：

(一)當我國在國際比賽贏球時，受訪者會較比較高的正向情緒，同時投資人會認為國家的經濟值得期待，並對本身的投資績效也會較看好，並願意承擔風險，研究結果顯示與私房錢效果(house money effect)類似。
(二)加入個人涉入因素下，高度涉入球賽的投資者在國家勝利效應為正向 下，會有較高正向的情緒狀態，對於經濟預期也比較樂觀，同時對於投資績效也比較有信心，但是在投資風險方面並不會因個人涉入產生差異。

上述研究結果可證實無論是來自天生的人格特質，抑或是受到整體國家情緒事件的影響，都有可能影響投資行為，證實投資人並非完全理性。

關鍵字

人格特質 ； 情緒 ； 投資行為 ； 私房錢效果

並列摘要

The traditional financial theories can not clearly interpret various anomalies from the financial market since the late 1980s. The prospect theory proposed by Kahneman and Tverskey (1979) indicates that personal cognitive bias will result in the bias of investor’s strategic decision. The personal investment bias usually comes from personal characteristic and emotional factor. This study carries out researches bases on the personal characteristic and emotional factor respectively, and the purpose is to understand whether these two factors result in different strategic decision from the investor.
The first research is based on the basis of behavioral medicine and we directly test whether biological gene has influence on personal characteristic; we then proceed to verify whether it has influence on personal investment behavior. The investors were tested in groups based on two types of genes (DRD2 TaqI A and 5-HTTLPR), to study whether these two types of genes have influence on personal investment behavior and attitude. The followings are the study results:
1.Those with genotype of DRD2 TaqI-A1+ allele have relatively higher level of compensational response, emotional disturbance, novelty seeking trait and risk taking attitude, and lower level of behavioral inhibition.
2.Those with L/L genotype of 5-HTTLPR have higher level of compensational response and lower level of behavioral inhibition.
3.The investors with DDR2 Taq1 A1+, along with 5-HTTLPR L/L genotype, will have higher level of compensational response, reward pleasure, deficit sadness, deficit hold back, novelty seeking and novelty investment, and lower level of behavioral inhibition.

The second research is to discuss the emotional influence on investment behavior. In the past, there is not much literature discussion about the influence on investor’s emotion towards the national team’s performance in international sports events, which is also called the national victory effect. This paper discusses whether our national baseball team’s performance in international tournament has influence on the investor’s emotion, as well as their investment decision. The followings are the study results:
1.When our national team wins games in the international tournament, the interviewee will have higher positive emotion; at the same time, the investors will have more expectation towards the country’s economy, and they are more optimistic on their investments, as well as more willing to take risk. The research result indicates the similar effect as the house money effect.
2.With the factor of personal involvement, the investors who are highly involved in the games will have higher positive emotion with the victory from the national team. They will also be more optimistic on the economic expectation and more confident of their investment results. However, there is no difference in the investment risk due to personal involvement.

The above research results can demonstrate that either the natural personal characteristic or the influence of the national team sports event will have impact on the investment behavior; this also verifies that investors are not completely rational.

並列關鍵字

Personality ； Sentiment ； Investment Behavior ； House Money Effect

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