以系統動態學探討國小師資供需政策之研究

A System Dynamics Model of Elementary School Teacher Supply and Demand

王美婷(Mei-Ting Wang)

指導教授 ： 翁興利

國立臺北大學/公共事務學院/公共行政暨政策學系/碩士(2008年)

摘要

近年來正式教師缺額一位難求，現職教師無法順利申請退休，使得許多儲備教師找不到工作，媒體所謂之「流浪教師」議題於是產生。為釐清我國國小師資供需之情形，本研究以2,627所國民小學作為研究對象，藉由師資供需影響變數，建立符合國小師資供需之系統動態學模型。系統動態學（System Dynamics）是以因果回饋觀點之系統思考方式，思考政策與結構之非線性關係，強調環境與策略等變數均會影響政策之過程，教育是一動態複雜之系統，系統動態學的整體系統思維方式恰好能綜觀國小師資供需之結構，並透過模擬不同情境變數與政策改變，尋找出國小師資供需失衡解決之道。

模型中由民國九十一年為起點，以人口面向、政策面向（每班班級人數、教師員額編制數與師資培育政策）以及財政面向作為觀察國小師資供需教育發展過程之主要變數，觀察系統內師資供需差額之變化情形，並於基本現況模擬後，進行情境模擬分析，以進一步發現有效之政策介入點。

研究結果發現：（一）提撥足夠退撫經費讓待退教師能順利退休是最有效改善供需差額之政策。（二）降低每班班級人數至32人以下仍無法解決師資供需失衡之問題。（三）現行師師資培育數量規劃方案為有效之政策。因此，本研究建議，應將每班班級人數降至30人以下，並配合提高教師員額編制數至2人，此外，應建立教師評鑑制度，汰換不是任教師，促進教師系統之新陳代謝。

關鍵字

師資供需、系統動態學、政策模擬

並列摘要

In recent years, vacancies for teaching job are difficult to recruited, and many senior teachers are waiting to retired. Lots of qualified teachers trained as educators but cannot find work become so called “vagabond teacher.” To understand the supply and demand of elementary school teachers, the study use 2,627 elementary school’s data to build system dynamics model for the supply and demand of elementary school teachers. System dynamics is the thinking way of causal relation and is good at dealing with the non-linear problem. It emphasizes both environment and strategy can influence the policy-making process. Education is a dynamic complexity system. The whole system viewpoint can exactly match the structure of elementary school teacher supply and demand and through stimulating different state variables and policies to find the best resolving way. The model uses 2002 data to analyze population sector, policy sector and finance sector. To find out the main variation of teacher supply and demand. Finally, we use policy-test methods to find out the best policies and then improve the system behavior. The major findings are as follows: 1.The best way to improve the problem is allowance enough pension to retirement. 2. To lower the elementary school student number by 32 per class still can’t resolve the problem. 3. The teacher education volume program is an effective policy. Therefore, the suggestion is to lower the elementary school student number by 30 per class and increase the teacher number to 2 people per class. In addition, it’s necessary to establish the mechanism of the teacher quantity and eliminate unsuitable teachers so as to metabolize the teacher system.

並列關鍵字

Teacher Supply and Demand, System Dynamics and Policy Simulation

參考文獻

吳清山（2004），〈教育發展新思路〉。《師友》，第50，頁14-17。

教育部統計處（2008.2.1），網址：

楊永雄（2005），《中小學師資需求量推估之研究---以桃園縣國民中小學為例 》，國立臺北科技大學技術及職業教育研究所碩士論文。

徐聖堯、楊靜利（2004），〈國小教師之供給量與需求量推估：民國92-102學年度〉，《教育與社會研究》，第7期，頁99-118。

徐鈺雯（2004），《國小師資供需失衡問題與因應措施之研究》，國立台北師範學院教育政策與管理研究所碩士論文。