台灣住宅部門主要電器電力消費因素之探討-系統動態學之應用

Electricity Conservation and CO2 Emission Reduction in Residential Sector's Major Appliances in Taiwan- an Application of System Dynamics Approach.

張元立(Yuan-Li Chang)

指導教授 ： 張四立

國立臺北大學/公共事務學院/自然資源與環境管理研究所/碩士(2011年)

摘要

人類生活在一個科技不斷革新的時代，即便新科技、新技術為家庭生活帶來便利，卻也無形之中加重能源之負荷。因此，在這個資源有限，但慾望無窮的社會中，政府應如何提高家用電器能源效率之規範，以及如何發展家用電器之誘因工具，以達到降低住宅部門之用電量及二氧化碳排放量，已成為全球共同關切之重要議題。
然而，由過去資料顯示，台灣住宅部門家用電器之電力消費狀況將決定住宅部門能源消費量之多寡。近年來政府也增添許多針對家用電器能源效率管理之措施，主要可分為兩大制度：強制性之最低能源效率標準(Minimum Energy Performance Standards；MEPS)管理及自願性之節能標章(Energy Labels)制度。但1997年至2008年之住宅部門電力密集度雖有波動，卻仍呈現逐年增加之情況。因此，若能先了解住宅部門主要之耗電電器設備，對症下藥，則可針對住宅部門主要家用電器能源效率之提升，得到其個別改善之幅度與效果，以有效達到政府施政之目標－節能減碳。
因此，本研究先將住宅部門耗能占比較高之家用電器細分為四項：冷氣機、電冰箱、電熱水器、及照明進行各別分析與探討，並利用系統動態模擬分析個別能源效率之提升將如何影響其用電量與二氧化碳排放量之成效，再經由綜合結果分析我國政府政策是否應優先針對主要耗電電器之最低能源效率加以提升或規範，以提供未來政府修訂能源政策時之參考。
經研究結果顯示，本研究可得到以下五項結論：（1）其他條件不變之情況下，若我國於2015年開始每年提升冷氣機能源效率3%，經過市面上冷氣機汰舊換新後，可達到用電量隨及降低之效果，並將於2026年後開始出現負成長之情況。其節能效果可累積節電量達1,149,393百萬度之多，即平均每年可節省21.8%之住宅冷氣機用電量，亦可得到CO2減量效果，總計678.31百萬噸/107Kcal。（2）其他條件不變之情況下，若我國於2011年起電冰箱能源效率固定每年提升1.5%後，可達434,530百萬度之累積節電量，即平均每年可節省3.4%住宅電冰箱用電量，約可減少約190百萬噸/107Kcal之CO2排放量。（3）其他條件不變之情況下，若我國於2012年公告電熱水器能源效率標準後，電熱水器能源效率每年提升7.2%，則可得811,660百萬度之累積節電量，即平均每年可減少34.4%之住宅電熱水器用電量，可減少約486百萬噸/107Kcal之CO2排放量。（4）其他條件不變之情況下，若我國於2012年以省電燈泡取代白熾燈泡之照明設備使用，可達累積節電量17,637百萬度，即平均每年可省下約16%之住宅照明用電量，可減少約10.34百萬噸/107Kcal之CO2排放量。（5）綜合住宅部門主要耗電之四種家用電器之節能政策，可發現住宅累積節電量高達2,413,208百萬度，即可節省13%之總用電量與1,365百萬噸/107Kcal之CO2排放量，相當於可使住宅平均每年用電量之下降11.8%。
有鑒於此，本研究透過個別電器之平均用電量年成長趨勢可發現，隨著電器能源效率之提升，著實能抑制住宅用電量之成長。其中，電熱水器若能實施強制性最低能源效率標準規範，則平均每年將可省下34.4%之用電量，其節電效果最大。因此，若欲最快達到住宅部門節能之成效，公告電熱水器最低能源效率標準之規範將可作為未來減量政策工具之優先選擇。然而，研究過程中發現，市面上仍存在許多舊型冷氣機，將造成住宅耗電量居高不下，政府若能針對冷氣機報廢行為加以改善，實施相關誘因政策以加速舊式冷氣機之淘汰速度，鼓勵民眾提早汰換EER值較高之新型冷氣機，則可省下約21.8%之用電量。

關鍵字

能源效率、住宅部門、家用電器、誘因工具

並列摘要

Human race now live in an innovation of technological era, even though new technology brings convenience to life, but it also increases energy load and climate change. Thus, the energy reserve is limited, government policies to improve energy efficiency and incentive tools to save electricity consumption and reduce CO2 emissions from residential sector have become global issues.
However, through analyzing the electricity consumption data in residential sector, this research found that the use of household appliances will determine the amount of energy end-used. In addition, the energy intensity of residential sector is still increasing（1997~2008）. In order to restrain this phenomenon, government has created many energy efficiency measures, mainly divided into two systems: The minimum Energy Performance Standards（MEPS）and the energy labels. Therefore, if we can figure out which appliances make the most electricity consumptions of the residential sector, we may direct its energy efficiency by government policy in order to meet the energy policy objectives.
In this study, I intend to divide residential sector into four major electrical appliances：air conditioners, refrigerators, electric water heaters, and lighting. Then use the system dynamic approach to analyze how the individual energy efficiency upgrades will impact the electricity consumptions and CO2 emissions. At last, combine the results of individual appliances to analyze the residential sector as a whole, and suggesting the government to give priority to major electrical appliances’ MEPS.
The results shows the following conclusions：(1) Other conditions remain unchanged, if we started to enhance the energy efficiency of the air conditioners by 3% per year, we can see the electricity consumption and CO2 emission reducing. By 2026, there will even appear a negative growth. The energy saving can accumulate to 1,149,393GWh, as an annual saving of 21.8%, and the CO2 reducing effect can obtain by the total of 678.31Mt/107Kcal. (2) Other conditions remain unchanged, if we started to enhance the energy efficiency of the refrigerators by 1.5% per year, we can see the electricity consumption and CO2 emission reducing. The energy saving can accumulate to 434,530GWh, as an annual saving of 3.4%, and the CO2 reducing effect can obtain by the total of 190Mt/107Kcal. (3) Other conditions remain unchanged, if we started to enhance the energy efficiency of the electric water heaters by 7.2% per year, we can see the electricity consumption and CO2 emission reducing. The energy saving can accumulate to 811,660GWh, as an annual saving of 34.4%, and the CO2 reducing effect can obtain by the total of 486Mt/107Kcal. (4) Other conditions remain unchanged, if we replace energy-saving bulb to incandescent bulbs by 2012. The energy saving can accumulate to 17,637GWh, as an annual saving of 16%, and the CO2 reducing effect can obtain by the total of 10.34Mt/107Kcal. (5) Comprehensive the major electrical appliances, the energy saving can accumulate to2,413,208GWh, as an annual saving of 13%, and the CO2 reducing effect can obtain by the total of 1,365Mt/107Kcal. Corresponding to the residential sector in declining electricity consumption on an average of 11.8% per year.
As a result, we found out that with the energy efficiency upgrade by individual household appliances, indeed, can inhibit the growth of electricity consumption. Among them all, the implementation of mandatory MEPS standard of electric water heaters can achieve the largest energy-saving effect. Therefore, this study suggests the government to announce the electric water heaters’ MEPS standard, in order to reach the energy policy goal in the fastest way. On the other hand, we even found that there are still lots of old air conditioners on the market, the government should implement an incentive policy to accelerate the elimination rate of old ones, and encourage people to replace higher EER value air conditioners.

並列關鍵字

Energy efficiency、residential sector 、household appliance、 incentive tools

參考文獻

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