自1996年來我國的失業率問題開始浮現,近年失業率更呈現往上攀升的趨勢,同時我國以高等教育做為維繫我國在全球經濟體中的競爭力與產業人才需求的方法,然而自2005年起擁有大學及以上教育程度者之年平均失業率卻高過整體平均失業率,而青年失業率也仍然居高不下。有鑑於此,本文探討我國自1994年教育改革後所實行之高等教育擴張政策,對於勞動市場上不同教育程度者失業率、總體失業率與青年失業率的影響。研究資料主要使用「縣市重要統計指標」並結合「內政部統計資料查詢網」與「教育統計指標」等資料庫在23個縣市1998-2010年間的長期追蹤資料,研究方法則採用OLS與固定效果模型,在控制時間趨勢下對各縣市的不同教育程度者失業率進行探討。 在影響各項教育程度者失業率的各項影響因素中,根據實證結果顯示,『大專及以上在學生人數』對於『大專及以上教育程度者失業率』以及『15至24歲年齡組失業率』並無顯著影響,但是對於『高中職教育程度者失業率』存在著顯著正相關,這可能意涵著高等教育擴張後的高學歷擁有者會因替代效果而取代高中職教育程度者之工作機會;而『青少年人口比率』則對各項失業率皆有顯著負相關,表示我國目前尚未存在世代排擠之現象。
Since 1996, unemployment has been rising in Taiwan. At the same time, the Ministry of Education implemented a higher education expansion policy. This thesis analyzes the effect of higher education expansion on unemployment rate in Taiwan, using a county level data from 1988 to 2010. The empirical methods used include ordinary least squares model and fixed effects model. The estimation results show that the higher education expansion variable, number of college students, does not produce statistically significant effects on the unemployment rate for people with college education and people aged 15-24. However, the higher education expansion variable is positively associated with the unemployment rate for people with high school education. This may imply that workers with college education are substitutes for workers with high school education or vocational education. In addition, the ratio of the youth population to population aged 15-55 is negatively correlated with various unemployment rates; this indicates that generational crowding effect may not exist in Taiwan.