影響台灣地方政府預算決策之因素分析

The Analysis of Impact Factors on Local Governments Budget Decisions in Taiwan

鄭竹君(JHU-JYUN CHENG)

指導教授 ： 林恭正

國立臺北大學/公共事務學院/財政學系/碩士(2015年)

摘要

地方政府預算是地方首長實現其施政理念的財務規劃書，一項預算決策的形成，除了地方首長的施政主張外，也涉及地方民意代表對首長理念贊同與否的政治因素，以及地方的社會、經濟、環境與制度等等的條件與情況，鑒於以往國內對預算決策的形成大多為討論方式的質性探討，缺乏量化的研究，本研究目的是採量化實證分析，探討影響台灣地方政府預算規模的決定因素。

本文依據Rubin(1992)的分類，分別從社會經濟面、環境面、政治面及制度面等四大面向分析影響地方政府歲出預算規模之因素。由於地方政府經常支出與資本支出的影響因素差異頗大，前者支出常受限於制度而缺乏彈性，後者多屬於計畫型支出相對較富有彈性；因此，除總預算支出外，進一步區分經常支出與資本支出來探討。為使探討的資料具一致性，採用1998年精省至2010年縣市改制前之我國23個直轄市及縣（市）政府共13年23縣市資料。

由於資料具時間與縣市縱橫數列的性質，採用追蹤資料(panel data)模型分析，透過F檢定及Hausman檢定結果顯示所有模型均採固定效果(fixed effect)模型結果進行分析。在社會經濟面，在1%顯著水準下失業率越高顯著增加經常預算支出，而在10%的顯著水準才顯著增加資本預算支出，可見失業率較顯著影響經常預算支出而非資本預算支出，符合失業津貼或輔導就業等支出都屬經常支出的預期。

在環境面，平均每人居住面積顯著正向影響人均預算總歲出、經常支出及資本支出；亦即人均居住面積越大，不但需要越多的經濟發展與公共建設等相關人均資本支出，也需要更多的一般行政及警政等相關人均經常支出。在政治面，各縣市首長與中央執政黨是否同黨籍以及地方首長與多數黨議員是否同黨籍之變數，對人均實質總歲出及資本支出預算數皆未呈顯著影響，反應出台灣地方政治對地方預算的影響主要是以首長及民意代表個別的利益為優先，而非受政黨政治變數的影響。在制度面，前期人均總預算歲出、經常預算支出及資本預算支出均分別呈顯著正向影響本期人均總預算支出、經常預算支出及資本預算支出，顯示地方政府預算的編列呈現遞增主義的型態。

關鍵字

追蹤資料模型 ； 預算決策 ； 地方政府預算 ； 固定效果模型 ； 遞增主義

並列摘要

Local government budgeting is a financial planning proposal for the local head/mayor to achieve his administration idea. Besides the local head proposition, many factors, such as society, economics, environment, system and the opinions of local council representatives, would affect the decision of local government budget. Due to the lack of quantitative discussion in this issue, the purpose of this study is to empirically evaluate the the impacts of decision factors on Taiwan’s local government budgeting scale.

Based on the categorization of Rubin(1992), this research considers social and economic, environmental, political, and systematic area as 4 factors that affect the budget decision of local government. Except total budget expenditure, we further consider current and capital expenditures separately as the dependent variables because the current expenditure limited to the restriction of system is considered as more inelastic than the capital expenditure most belonged to project expenditure is. For the reason of consistency, the data used in this study contains 13 years and 23 counties/cities of Taiwan local governments from 1998 to 2010 before the restructuring of counties/cities.

Due to the data structure of time series and cross section, a panel data model is employed to estimate these impacts. Through the examination of F test and Hausman test, all models confirm to be fixed effect models. For social and economic factors, the unemployment rate positively significantly increases the current budget expenditure at 1% significant level, whereas it positively significantly increases the capital budget at 10% significant level. This shows the unemployment rate is more significantly affecting the current instead of capital budget expenditure which demonstrates the expectation that the unemployment subsidy and employment tutoring expenditure are belonged to be current expenditures.

For environmental factors, living area per capita positively significantly affects the total spending, the current and capital expenditures per capita separately. This means that the more living area per capita the more economic development and public construction per capita we need, and furthermore, the more general administrative and police administrative current expenditure we also need. For the political factors, the variables of whether the head of counties/cities and the central ruling party are the same party and whether the head of counties/cities and local majority council representatives are the same party did not significantly affect total spending budget and capital spending budget which reply that the local budget is mainly affected by the benefits of counties/cities head and council representatives but not the local parties and political variables. For the systematic factors, the pre-period total budget, current budget and capital budget expenditures per capita are significantly separately affecting the current period total budget, current budget and capital budget expenditures per capita. This result reveals the symbol of incremental ideology in budget system.

Keywords: local government budgeting, budget decision, the panel data model, the fixed effects model, incremental ideology

並列關鍵字

the panel data model ； budget decision ； local government budgeting ； the fixed effects model ； incremental ideology

參考文獻

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