臺灣地方政府財政永續性之實證分析

The Fiscal Sustainability of Local Governments: the Evidence from Taiwan

劉品柔(Pin-Jou Liu)

指導教授 ： 林恭正

國立臺北大學/公共事務學院/財政學系/碩士(2014年)

摘要

地方政府擁有健全的財政體質，才能夠有良好的經濟發展，然而臺灣地方政府歷年赤字及未償債務餘額卻有日漸增長趨勢，再加上臺灣目前尚未有研究地方政府財政永續性的議題，故本研究主要目的為探討臺灣地方政府是否具有財政永續性，並進一步探討財政均等政策及政治變數的影響，從而檢討臺灣地方政府的財政狀況。
本文以Bohn(2005)模型為理論基礎，蒐集臺灣地方23個縣市政府1998年到2012年的資料，進行單根檢定、共整合檢定、向量自我迴歸分析以及固定效果模型分析，檢驗台灣地方政府債務占總所得之比率對預算賸餘占總所得之比率的影響。實證分析的結果顯示臺灣地方政府債務占總所得比率的變動對預算賸餘占總所得之比率為負向影響，表示臺灣地方政府財政狀況不具永續性。
在基本固定效果的模型中，包含補助及協助收入以及中央統籌分配稅款會比不包含時使得地方政府更不具財政永續性，顯示只考慮地方差異的情況下，補助與統籌款挹注地方政府只會使預算賸餘比率更形惡化；同時存在固定區域效果及固定時間效果的雙向效果模型中，則是不包含中央補助與統籌分配稅款的情況下，地方政府更不具財政永續性，顯示同時考慮地方差異與時間差別下，沒有補助與統籌款的挹注，將使預算賸餘比例更形惡化。除此之外，追蹤資料迴歸分析中也顯示了地方政府支出規模越大，預算賸餘占總所得的比率越小；當縣市長與議會多數黨同黨，預算賸餘比例越小，可能會因預算審議較為容易通過，預算執行不力所致；當地方首長與中央首長同一政黨，預算賸餘比例越大，可能是因目前北部縣市與中央首長同黨情況多，且這些縣市財政狀況本來就較佳所致，或因同黨籍地方政府所獲得資源較好所致。研究結果明確顯示，地方政府須積極從事開源節流措施，否則地方政府財政狀況將更形惡化；另外，一味仰賴中央補助與統籌款挹注地方政府，更加掩飾地方財政的惡化。

關鍵字

固定效果模型 ； 政府債務 ； 財政永續性 ； 地方財政 ； 追蹤資料模型

並列摘要

In order to have well economic development, the local governments need to have healthy fiscal condition. However, the deficit and debt of Taiwan’s local government increase sharply in recent years. Further, due to lack of study in field of local fiscal sustainability in Taiwan, the puspose of this study is to test the fiscal sustainability of Taiwan local government. The focus will then examine how the fiscal equalizing policy of central government and political factors affect the local fiscal performance. The policy implication of fiscal condition of Taiwan local government will be discussed finally.
Based on the empirical model of Bohn (2005), we evaluate the impact of debt-to-total income ratio on primary surplus-to-total income ratio in Taiwan’s local governents. The data of Taiwan’s 23 counties/cities from 1998 to 2012 are used to perform the single root test, cointegration test, vector autoregression analysis, and fixed effects model analysis. The empirical results show the effect of debt-to-total income ratio on primary surplus-to-total income ratio in Taiwan local governents is negative, which means that the local governments in Taiwan are not fiscal sustainable.
Further results are follows. First, in the fixed effect model, the local government fiscal unsustainability rises if the grants and Centrally-Distributed Tax Revenues (G&CDT) are included. This shows the included G&CDT will deteriorate the local fiscal sustainability further under the consideration of regional differentiation. Second, in the consideration of regional and time differentiation, the fiscal unsustainability of local government will become more worsen if G&CDT are not included. This implies that the fiscal condition of local government is not sustainable even more without the inclusion of G&CDT. Third, the larger local government spending is, then the less budget surplus-to-total income ratio is. Forth, if local major and majority party of local council belong to same party, the ratio of budget surplus-to-total income becomes less. This might refer to the reasons of easy pass of budget auditing and ineffective performance of budget. Finally, the budget surplus ratio increases when local authority and central president are in the same party. This might be due to the most majors in the northern part of Taiwan and the President belonging to same party and the fiscal conditions of these counties/cities are relatively well. Or it might be the reason that the local governments get more resource if their majors are the same party wity the President. The implication of this study is that the local governments in Taiwan should really put more efforts in increasing revenues and spending more effectively. Furthermore, the reliance of grants and Centrally-Distributed Tax Revenues would make the fiscal conditions of local governments in Taiwan even more deterioratedly.

並列關鍵字

government debt ； fiscal sustainability ； local public finance ； the fixed effects model ； the panel model

參考文獻

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