從結構性赤字探討我國財政永續性問題

A Study on Fiscal Sustainability from the Structural Deficits in Taian

王菀禪(Wan-Chan Wang)

指導教授 ： 蘇建榮

國立臺北大學/公共事務學院/財政學系/碩士(2008年)

摘要

我國的財政表現在近幾年來，未償債務餘額持續上升，讓民眾大失所望。另一方面，政府實質支出成長幅度高於實質收入幅度，而公債利率大於經濟成長率，於是本文的目的將檢視我國財政赤字是否嚴重，而危及到財政永續性的達成。
在過去文獻中，探討財政永續性時並未加入經濟體系的變動，只有對政府收入與支出做探討。不過，發展到近期，學者為了釐清政府收入與支出的變化情形，往往加入結構性變動，做深入的研究。但是在觀察國家經濟的長期發展過程中，造成總體變數波動的原因很多，為了簡化資料的分類過程，大致分為趨勢性因素和循環性因素。因此，本文採用H-P濾波（Hodrick-Prescott filter）去除循環性因素，分別採用兩種調整循環性因素影響的方法，其所得到的結果來評估我國財政狀況在短期與中期是否符合財政永續性。亦即利用所得到的結構性餘額與結構性赤字，對政府的財政狀況做深入的分析。
首先，本文得到從79年度持續到95年度，我國的財政表現大都處於赤字的窘境裡。在短期的財政永續觀點下，我國的財政表現尚未滿足短期財政永續性。再者，因為結構性赤字（apds）可以精確地分析我國當下的財政狀況。所以在結果中發現，我國自70年度中期以後，結構性赤字（apds）大於均衡結構性赤字（pds*），居高不下的現象顯示我國財政情況的惡化。到95年度為止，我國的結構性赤字（apds）與均衡結構性赤字（pds*）相差已達到1134億元之高。因此在結構性赤字的結果中，可以知道我國中期的財政表現並未符合財政永續性。

關鍵字

財政永續性 ； 結構性赤字

並列摘要

Due to the continuous acceleration of unpaid debt, the public finance in Taiwan has been disappointing to the public. We also observed the growth of the government’s real expense is more than the government’s real revenue and the fund interest rate is higher than the economics growth rate. In this paper, we focus on the effect of government’s finance deficit on the achivement of Fiscal Sustainability.
In historical papers about Fiscal Sustainability, scholars didn’t consider economic dynamics but only the government’s expense and revenue. However, in order to clarify the variation of the government’s expense and revenue, scholars have recently started to add in structural breaks recently to in-depth research. When observing the long-term economic development of a country, there are many causes of macroeconomics variation. To simplify the classification of information, we break it into two groups, Trend Factors and Cyclical Factors. In this paper, we use the Hodrick-Prescott filter to dismiss Cyclical Factors and two methods of adjusting for the effects of Cyclical Factors to estimate the government’s short-term and mid-term finance behavior.
According to the research, we know that the government has been deficit spending for the majority of the time from 1989 to 2006. In terms of the short-term fiscal policy in Taiwan, the public finance does not cohere with the principals of Fiscal Sustainability. What’s more, since the actual structural deficits（apds）can be used to precisely analyze our public finance, we found out that after mid 1981, the government’s public finance in Taiwan has been deteriorating due to the higher apds compare to the equilibrium structural deficits（pds）, with a difference of 113 billion TWD in 2006. Thus, from the result of adps, we know that the government’s mid-term finance behavior also does not cohere with Fiscal Sustainability.

並列關鍵字

Fiscal Sustainability ； structural deficits

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