台灣參與跨太平洋夥伴協定（TPP）及區域全面經濟夥伴協定（RCEP）之經濟影響比較分析︰技術外溢效果之意涵

Economy-Wide Impacts of Taiwan’s Participating in the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership: The Significance of Technology Spillover Effects

鄭宜婷(Yi-Ting Cheng)

指導教授 ： 李叢禎

國立臺北大學/社會科學學院/經濟學系/碩士(2014年)

摘要

跨太平洋夥伴協定（Trans-Pacific Partnership, TPP）及區域全面經濟夥伴協定（Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, RCEP）是近年來對於亞洲國家具關鍵影響的兩個自由貿易協定，對台灣而言，亦是增加出口競爭力及刺激經濟成長之重要協定。本研究利用全球貿易分析模型（Global Trade Analysis Project, GTAP）配合 GTAP 8.1版資料庫從事數值模擬分析，比較台灣參與TPP及RCEP之經濟影響全貌，據以研析政府之自由貿易策略。有別於現有國內針對這兩個自由貿易協定之研究，本文考量TPP高規格開放之特性，嘗試捕捉TPP成員國降低服務業障礙之影響；此外，由於國際間貿易為一技術外溢之管道，又外溢效果所帶來之技術進步可以刺激我國經濟成長，故本文亦加入了技術外溢效果。
本研究結果顯示，在僅考慮貨品市場開放之經濟影響效果，參與TPP可為台灣帶來1.23%的實質GDP成長率，若考量其高規格開放之特性，加上三分之二服務業關稅削減之效果，台灣的實質GDP成長率可增加達1.80%。於此同時，台灣參與RCEP成員國間之貨品關稅完全削減可獲得1.67%之實質GDP成長率。若同時考量技術外溢效果，則參與RCEP可為台灣帶來2.65%之實質GDP成長率，而參與TPP可使台灣獲得2.81%的實質GDP成長率。
在各模擬情境下，台灣參與TPP與RCEP皆可獲致實質GDP成長之利得。不論是僅考慮市場開放之經濟影響，抑或進一步考量技術外溢效果，台灣參與TPP皆可獲致較高的實質GDP成長，此一結論與現有文獻相左。而在自由貿易之下仍有部份產業部門將會面臨衝擊，亟需制訂配套政策因應。如農業部門，建議政府持續擴充農產品受進口損害救助基金，協助此部門朝精緻化、科技化等提升附加價值之方向發展。對於具有競爭力之製造業，政府應持續提升人力資源培養、鼓勵研究與發展，以提升其產品之國際競爭力。服務業部門將因市場開放而受益，但事實上我國在服務業有較嚴格之法規管制，將使我國面臨自由化的諸多挑戰，因此政府應努力降低服務業貿易障礙，並在法規制度面向積極與國際接軌。

關鍵字

技術外溢 ； 區域全面經濟夥伴協定 ； 跨太平洋夥伴協定 ； 可計算一般均衡

並列摘要

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) are two of the most significant free trade agreements (FTAs) involving major Asian countries in the resent years.　The two FTAs serve as the vital engine for Taiwan to foster its economy growths and enhance the export competiveness. The main purpose of this thesis is to provide a quantitative analysis for a comparison between Taiwan’s participating in the TPP and the RCEP. To make accurate estimations, we not only consider the reduction in the tariff barriers of tangible goods, but also reduce the trade barriers of service industry in the TPP given its high quality of comprehensive market access. In addition, in view of the fact that international trade provides a transmission channel of technology spillovers which may stimulate further economic growth, this thesis further account for the extra gains resulting from technology spillover effects.
The quantitative impacts of the two FTAs on Taiwan’s economy are analyzed using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model and its version 8.1 database. Our numerical results show that, in the presence of technology spillover effects, Taiwan can have an economic gain in terms of a real GDP growth by 1.23% when participating the TPP while only eliminating the tariff barriers of goods (which might be underestimated), 1.80% participating the TPP while reducing the tariff barriers of goods and service, and 1.67% participating the RCEP. In addition, with technology spillover, there could be in a gain up to 2.65% participating the RCEP, and joining the TPP causes higher gains—up to 2.81% of real GDP—for Taiwan.
Excluding technology spillover effects, the simulation results suggest that we should choose the TPP. And if we further consider the technology spillover effects, participating the TPP is still better than joining the RCEP. Based on our results, the Primary sector would be injured. To reduce this damage, we should set supporting measures. For example, expanding the subsidies to those who is injured by the liberalization, and increasing the value-added of this sector. For the manufacturing sectors, the results suggest that they would gain from the liberalization. So, the government should keep strengthening human capital resources, encouraging research and development departments, and optimizing the industrial structure. Service sectors would also experience a growth from participating the TPP, but in reality, there are many restrictions from the legal aspects. In response to this market liberalization, we should reform the related laws as soon as possible, so that we could keep up with the world.

並列關鍵字

technology spillover ； RCEP ； TPP ； CGE

參考文獻

Chuang, Y.C. (1998), “Learning by Doing, the Technology Gap, and Growth,” International Economic Review, Vol. 39, No. 3, pp. 697-721.

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Chen, K. H., & Yang, H. Y. (2011), “Revealing the International Spillovers Structure of Innovation for Asian Region,” Global Economic Review, 40(1), 83-121.

Cheong, I. and Tongzon, J. (2013), “Comparing the Economic Impact of the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership,” Asian Economic Papers, Summer 2013, Vol. 12, No. 2, pp. 144-164.