會計保守對盈餘有用性影響之研究-以攸關性與可靠性觀點分析

Accounting Conservatism Impact On Earnings Usefulness－ Relevance and Reliability

李金憙(Chin-Hsi Lee)

指導教授 ： 李淑華

國立臺北大學/商學院/會計學系/碩士(2012年)

摘要

本論文主要探討會計保守與盈餘預測未來營業現金流量能力(盈餘攸關性)之關連性，及會計保守與盈餘預測未來盈餘能力(盈餘可靠性)之關連性；並進一步針對盈餘攸關性與盈餘可靠性對當期盈餘對股價之增額解釋能力(盈餘有用性)之影響進行分析。以1991年至2010年之國內上市櫃公司為樣本，將樣本區分為全樣本與固定樣本；此外，考量上市與上櫃公司特性差異，故亦將針對全樣本與固定樣本中之上市公司進行檢測。本論文之實證結果發現如下：
一、會計保守與盈餘預測未來營業現金流量能力之關連性
　　在全樣本部分，會計保守與盈餘攸關性為顯著正相關，即當會計保守程度增加時，則增加當期盈餘對次期現金流量之增額預測能力，亦即會計保守增加盈餘攸關性。但在固定樣本部分，會計保守與盈餘攸關性為正相關與預期方向一致但不顯著。
二、會計保守與盈餘預測未來盈餘能力之關連性
　　在全樣本部分，會計保守與盈餘可靠性為負相關與預期方向一致但不顯著。另外，在固定樣本部分，會計保守與盈餘可靠性為顯著正相關，但與本研究預期方向不一致。
三、盈餘攸關性與盈餘可靠性對盈餘有用性之影響
　　盈餘攸關性對盈餘有用性之影響，在全樣本與固定樣本中，盈餘攸關性與盈餘有用性為負相關且不顯著，該實證結果與Bandyopadhyay, Chen, Huang and Jha (2010)一致。另外，盈餘可靠性對盈餘有用性之影響，在全樣本部分，盈餘有用性與盈餘可靠性為正相關與預期方向一致但不顯著。在固定樣本部分，盈餘可靠性與盈餘有用性為顯著正相關，即當盈餘可靠性增加時，則增加當期盈餘對股價之增額解釋能力，亦即盈餘可靠性將會增加盈餘有用性。

綜言之，根據全樣本之實證結果可知，當會計保守程度增加時，增加當期盈餘對次期現金流量之增額預測能力(即會計保守增加盈餘攸關性)，但降低當期盈餘對次期盈餘之增額預測能力(即會計保守降低盈餘可靠性)之結果不顯著。另外，當期盈餘預測未來營業現金流量能力(盈餘攸關性)增加時，並沒有增加當期盈餘對股價之增額解釋能力(盈餘有用性)，即表示增加盈餘攸關性並沒有增加盈餘有用性；而當期盈餘預測未來盈餘能力(盈餘可靠性)增加時，增加當期盈餘對股價之增額解釋能力(盈餘有用性)，即表示增加盈餘可靠性將增加盈餘有用性。

關鍵字

會計保守；盈餘有用性；未來現金流量可預測性；未來盈餘可預測性

並列摘要

This study investigates the relation between accounting conservatism and the ability of current earnings to predict future operating cash flows (earnings relevance), and the relation between accounting conservatism and the ability of current earnings to predict future earnings (earnings reliability). Besides, I investigate the relation between earnings usefulness and the ability of current earnings to predict future operating cash flows, and the relation between earnings usefulness and the ability of current earnings to predict future earnings, i.e. I analysis the impact of earnings relevance and earnings reliability on earnings usefulness. Sample firms consist of all firms listed in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TSE) and the GreTai Securities Market (OTC). I choose 1991-2010 as sample period and use full sample and constant sample in all empirical tests. In addition to the combined-sample tests, sample firms from TSE are also tested separately in all empirical tests.
For the relation between accounting conservatism and the ability of current earnings to predict future operating cash flows, our findings include the following: Accounting conservatism is positively and significantly related to earnings relevance for the full sample, i.e. accounting conservatism enhances the predictive ability of current earnings for future cash flows. However, accounting conservatism is insignificantly related to earnings relevance for the constant sample.
For the relation between accounting conservatism and the ability of current earnings to predict future earnings, our findings include the following: Accounting conservatism is insignificantly negatively related to earnings reliability for the full sample. However, accounting conservatism is positively and significantly related to earnings reliability for the constant sample.
For the tests of the impact of earnings relevance and earnings reliability on earnings usefulness, our findings include the following: The relation between earnings usefulness and earnings relevance is statistically insignificant, i.e. earnings usefulness is insignificantly related to earnings relevance. This empirical result is consistent with Bandyopadhyay, Chen, Huang and Jha (2010). The relation between earnings usefulness and earnings reliability is statistically insignificant for the full sample, i.e. earnings usefulness is insignificantly related to earnings reliability. Earnings usefulness is positively and significantly related to earnings reliability for the constant sample, i.e. earnings reliability enhances the incremental explanatory power of current earnings to earnings usefulness.
To summarize, according to the empirical results for the full sample, accounting conservatism enhances the predictive ability of current earnings for future cash flows, i.e. accounting conservatism enhances earnings relevance. The relation between accounting conservatism and the predictive ability of current earnings for future earnings is insignificant. However, when the ability of current earnings to predict future operating cash flows (earnings relevance) increases, the incremental explanatory power of current earnings to earnings usefulness does not increase, i.e. earnings relevance does not enhance earnings usefulness. When the ability of current earnings to predict future earnings (earnings reliability) increases, the incremental explanatory power of current earnings to earnings usefulness (earnings usefulness) increases, i.e. earnings reliability enhances earnings usefulness.

並列關鍵字

Accounting conservatism ； Earnings Usefulness ； Future cash flow predictability ； Future earnings predictability

參考文獻

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