- 學位論文
台北市購屋貸款與可能影響因子彈性之探討
AN INVESTIGATION TO THE HOME MORTGAGE AND OTHER IMPORTANT FACTORS IN THE AREA OF TAIPEI
摘要
傳統實證文獻皆指出購置住宅貸款與購屋房貸利率是呈現負向變動關係，而與房價呈現正向變動關係。本研究依循Eric Hillebrand and Faik Koray（2007）所設立的模型，並使用台北市的實際資料，探討購置住宅貸款與購屋房貸利率、台北市房價、台北市家戶數量以及台北市家戶可支配所得之間的長期均衡與短期調整的關係。 本文以多變量共整合分析為基礎，實證結果顯示，各變數的係數影響方向均符合本研究之預期：購屋房貸利率與購置住宅貸款呈現負相關，台北市房價、台北市家戶數量以及台北市家戶可支配所得與購置住宅貸款呈現正相關。本文藉由向量誤差修正模型發現以購置住宅貸款與台北市家戶數量作為因變數的模型本身具有能夠修正誤差回到長期均衡的能力。特別觀察購置住宅貸款的部份，若購置住宅貸款偏離長期均衡，誤差修正項便會調整，且每季的平均調整速度約為18.82%。
並列摘要
The traditional literature all pointed out the home mortgage with home mortgage rate presents negative direction relationship, but with the house price presents positive relationship. This paper relies on the model which Eric Hillebrand and Faik Koray (2007) sets up, and uses Taipei actual data to investigate the long-run and short-run relationships between home mortgage and home mortgage rate, the Taipei house price, the Taipei household number, and the Taipei household disposable income. This paper uses Multi-Variables Cointegration Analysis as the foundation, we find the main variables’ coefficient influence direction conforms to this paper anticipated: home mortgage rate with home mortgage presents negative relationship; the Taipei house price, the Taipei household number, and the Taipei household disposable income with home mortgage present negative relationships. This paper presents Vector Error Correction Model to examine that models which use home mortgage or the Taipei household number as response variable have the ability to revise error and return to the long-run equilibrium. We observe the part of home mortgage, if home mortgage deviates from long-term equilibrium, the error correction term will adjust, and the average speed approximately is 18.82%.