關稅卸除對一國產出、物價及福利分析:一個新開放總體經濟模型

The Effect of Tariff Removals on Output, Prices, and Welfare in a New Open Macroeconomy

張明傑(Ming-Jie Jung)

指導教授 ： 陳淑華

國立臺北大學/社會科學學院/經濟學系/碩士(2011年)

摘要

「新開放總體經濟模型」(New Open Macroeconomics Model)主要是在探討諸如貨幣以及貿易政策對消費、產出、經常帳、實質利率、貿易條件、匯率及福利水準的影響，並且納入不完全競爭下的市場結構。台灣與中國大陸所簽訂的「兩岸經濟合作架構協議」（Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, ECFA）成為了兩岸各界所注目的焦點。本文沿用Fender & Yip(2000)的動態Redux Model，旨在研究關稅政策對一國各總體經濟變數及福利水準的影響，其中模型並非完全針對兩岸ECFA，而是一般化的模型，藉著將關稅卸除視作ECFA 早期收穫，將進口商品分為被課稅之比重(m-n)以及免稅之比重(1-m)，利用不完全競爭市場產品具異質性之特性，使政策變數 m變動，並將各變數在經濟起始狀態做對數線性化(log-linearization)，再利用對數線性化後的模型，推導出各變數的長期穩定均衡與外生變數間的關係，探討關稅卸除後也就是m變動(減少)對兩國長期總體經濟變數及福利水準之影響。

本國研究結果顯示，當只有本國對外國課稅之條件下，關稅卸除對本國與外國沒有絕對之影響，而是取決於兩國之經濟規模大小以及不完全競爭市場之結構強弱。單就產出而言，結論顯示本國為相對大國時有利，對外國不利。就福利而言，本國產出與福利無法兼顧，也就是追求產出(所得)增加將犧牲國內福利而外國則兩者皆可兼顧。

關鍵字

關稅卸除

並列摘要

Mainly in the study, New Open Macroeconomics Model disscuss some issues such as monetary and trade policies on consumption, output, current account, real interest rates, terms of trade, the impact of exchange rates and benefit levels. Furthermore, it add in imperfect competition into the market structure. China and Taiwan signed a contract which was named “Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement,(ECFA)”, and that becomes a highlight to each country. This thesis is abided by Redux Model from Fender & Yip(2000), the main purpose is to find the impact of the tariff policy on a country's overall economic variables and the level of welfare.
Especially, the model isn’t totally focus on ECFA, but a general model which regards Tariff Removals policy as list of early gain in ECFA . And according to the proportion of taxable the model leads import commodities to two part, the proportion “m-n”, and the proportion “1-m”. Use of imperfect competition with heterogeneity of product market characteristics, changes in the policy variables m and the start of each variable in the economic status do log-linearization, then use this log-linearization model to derived from long-term stability of the equilibrium and the relationship between exogenous variables, that is, the model discuss the impact on after the removable of tariff changes in m (decrease) in long-term macro-economic variables between the two countries and the welfare level.
My study showed that when only domestic conditions for foreign taxation, Tariff Removals policy to the domestic and foreign influence is not absolute, but depends on the size and economies of scale between the two countries and the situation of perfectly competitive market structure strength. In terms of output, concluded that it’s good to domestic country when which is relative bigger than the others, and vice versa. On welfare, the national output and welfare of domestic country cannot be given consideration to both sides, that is, the pursuit of output (income) increases that will sacrifice domestic welfare, but in foreign countries they will look after both sides.

並列關鍵字

Tariff Removals

參考文獻

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Domestic Prices in a Monetary Economy.” Review of Economic Studies, 47(2),

Welfare Leakages of a Tariff in a Small Open Economy.” CCSO Working

Papers 199910, University of Groningen.

4. Devadoss, S. and Lanclos, K. (2000), “Trade in imperfectly competitive