捷運站聯合開發屬性對捷運使用及不動產價格之影響-台北捷運系統之實證研究

The Influences of Metro Station Joint Development Attributes on Metro Use and Real Estate Value: An Empirical Study of Taipei Metro System

陳建翰(Chien-Han Chen)

指導教授 ： 林楨家

國立臺北大學/公共事務學院/都市計劃研究所/碩士(2011年)

摘要

近幾年來隨著台北捷運路網建設趨於完善，與捷運站聯合開發規劃是國內配合捷運建設在場站附近推動大眾運輸導向發展的普遍性作法。目前台北捷運已通車路網中共有28處已正式完工辦理租售作業之聯合開發基地，這些聯合開發基地依不同的市場定位及需求具有相異的屬性，也因站區所位處的地理環境而存在多樣的特徵。但是目前國內對於聯合開發內容的屬性或特徵跟捷運使用與不動產價格間的影響關係，尚缺乏足夠的資訊，造成規劃或評估聯合開發計畫內容時的困難。因此，本研究以台北捷運系統民國99年已通車營運之80個車站為例，進行實證研究，透過既有資料蒐集及線性迴歸模式分析不同聯合開發基地的開發屬性及站區特徵對於捷運使用數量、捷運使用時間分散情況及不動產價格所造成的影響。

本研究根據文獻回顧與課題研析之內容，推論聯合開發屬性對捷運使用及不動產價格的影響關係，並且依此提出研究假說，繼而使用合適之統計方法設計驗證程序，以選定的變數、變數型態進行迴歸模式校估檢定工作，釐清捷運站聯合開發對捷運使用及不動產價格的影響關係及程度，實證結果有以下幾點發現：(一)聯合開發基地規模及基地停車位數對捷運運量存在正向的影響效果；(二)聯合開發通道系統設計對捷運運量時間分散情況存在正向的影響效果；(三)聯合開發站區相較於非聯合開發站區的捷運運量，轉乘公車路線數的正向影響會較小；站區停車位數的負向影響會較小；及業密度的正向影響會較小；距台北車站距離的負向影響會較大；(四)聯合開發站區相較於非聯合開發站區的運量分布情形，及業密度的正向影響會較大；距市府站距離的正向影響會較小；是否有自行車道的正向影響會較大；(五)聯合開發站區相較於非聯合開發站區的不動產價格，轉乘公車路線數的正向影響會較大；居住密度的負向影響會較大；及業密度的正向影響會較大；站區混合使用熵值的負向影響會較小；距市府站距離對平均房價的負向影響較小；屋齡的負向影響會較大。

最後，以促進大眾運輸使用與增加不動產收益為目標，研擬國內捷運場站聯合開發計畫內容的規劃策略或評估準則建議如下：聯合開發屬性面，應適度提高捷運站聯合開發大樓的樓地板面積，或是進行大範圍的站區整體開發計畫，並採用捷運連通道的規劃設計；建成環境系統面，應與當地公車業者配合增加轉乘公車路線的停靠班次與服務密度，並能將站區自行車道納入整體規劃考量。另一方面優先選擇市中心的捷運車站進行聯合開發規劃並鼓勵提供更多的就業機會與辦理捷運站區周邊老舊住宅的都市更新計畫。

關鍵字

大眾捷運 ； 聯合開發 ； 捷運使用 ； 不動產價格 ； 線性迴歸

並列摘要

In recent years the Taipei MRT (mass rapid transit) network keeps growing, and the joint development (JD) of MRT stations has become a common approach to promote transit-oriented developments within metro station areas. There are 28 JD projects being completed and opened for rental operations on the present Taipei MRT network. These JD projects were developed with various attributes according to different market positioning and environmental context. However, the knowledge about impacts of JD project attributes on metro use and real estate value is still too vague to support JD project planning and assessing. Therefore, this study used 80 stations of Taipei MRT system in 2010 as study sample and applied linear regression method to empirically explored the impacts of JD attributes on daily ridership, ridership dispersion in time and real estate value.

Based on literature review and issue analysis, this study proposed hypothetical effects of JD attrbutes on metro use and real estate value. And then the sample data were collected and analyzed by linear regression models. The empirical results reached the following findings: (1) Increasing floor area or parking spaces of a JD project significantly increased metro ridership. (2) Providing cross passages between JD projects and metro stations significantly dispersed metro ridership in time. (3) Comparing with non-JD stations, JD stations performed different effects on metro ridership: number of feeder bus routes created smaller positive effects; number of parking spaces in station area created smaller negative effects; employee density created smaller positive effects; and, distance to Taipei Main Station created greater negative effects. (4) Comparing with non-JD stations, JD stations performed different effects on ridership dispersion in time: employee density created greater positive effects; distance to Taipei City Hall Station created smaller positive effects; and, providing bicycle exclusive lanes created greater positive effects (5) Comparing with non-JD stations, JD stations performed different effects on real estate value: number of feeder bus routes created greater positive effects; residential density created greater negative effects; employee density created greater positive effects; mixed land uses in station areas created smaller negative effects; distance to Taipei City Hall Station created smaller negative effects; and, house age created greater negative effects.

In order to promote travelers using public transportation systems and increase real estate profits for supporting transit operations, this study recommend numerous planning strategies or evaluation criteria for domestic MRT station JD projects- First, adequately increasing floor area, developing a whole scale of station area plan, and providing cross passages with metro stations could be considered for JD project planning. Second, improving feeder bus services and paving bikeway networks could be considered for transportation planning within metro station areas. Finally, preferentially deploying JD projects in city center areas, providing more employment opportunities and developing urban renewal plans could be considered for land use planning within metro station areas.

並列關鍵字

mass rapid transit ； joint development ； metro ridership ； real estate value ； linear regression

參考文獻

9. 李怡婷(2005)，「大眾運輸導向發展策略對捷運站區房地產價格之影響分析」，國立成功大學都市計劃學系碩士論文。

1. Atkinson- Palombo, C. and Kuby, M.J. (2010), The geography of advance transit-oriented development in metropolitan Phoenix, Arizona, 2000-2005, Journal of Transport Geography, in Press, Corrected Proof, Available online 21 April 2010.

2. Bernick, M. and Cervero, R. (1997), Transit Villages for the 21st Century, New York: McGraw-Hill.

3. Boarnet, M. and Crane, R. (1997), L.A. story, A reality check for transit-based housing, Journal of American Planning Association, Vol.63, No.2, pp.189-203.

4. Bowes, D. R. and Ihlanfeldt, K. R. (2001), Identifying the impacts of rail transit stations on residential property values, Urban Economics, Vol. 50, No. 1, pp. 1-25.