於全球消費能力不斷擴增之際,台灣的手錶市場也順應著趨勢不斷成長。近年來台灣在瑞士鐘錶出口市場中所佔的排名已逐漸提升至全球第12名,此也肯定了台灣人對手錶的消費能力。然而就在手錶業看似一片榮景的未來,卻由於去年金融風暴的效應,造成手錶產業普遍受到打擊,業績應聲滑落。這不僅讓我們思考,台灣手錶產業該如何因應突如其來的衝擊?且究竟總體經濟的巨大變化是如何影響著台灣手錶市場?是否又會對其經營模式造成影響? 本研究以5個不同定價手錶品牌於92至98年之實際銷售資料為研究樣本。自變數則為7種總體經濟指數:台灣股價加權指數、失業率、企業營業額、貨幣總計數、利率銀行承兌匯票、消費者物價總指數及全體銀行存款餘額等,以上7種總體經濟指數分當期、落差一期、落差三期及落差六期資料來驗證其彼此間的關係及影響顯著程度。此外,本研究使用古典時間模型以驗證是否有顯著的季節穩定性及移動性變化、長期趨勢變化等效果,並預測未來一年5個不同定價的手錶品牌銷售趨勢,其中前78筆觀察值用以建構模式,最後6筆做為預測效益評估之用(外部效度)。 經實證分析後得到以下結論: 一、 7種不同總體經濟指數對手錶銷售均有影響:因手錶定價不同而有不同時期及不同程度的影響。 二、 平價手錶銷售會隨季節性有穩定性變化:手錶價格愈低者愈具有淡旺季間的差異,且平價手錶銷售會有特定季節性移動變化:手錶價格愈低者愈具有特定季節的最佳銷售,不論任何價位手錶銷售皆會因總體經濟的巨大變化而呈現相同變化:但價位愈高之手錶品牌跌幅較深,但反彈時也較快。 三、手錶品牌的價格彈性愈小時,預測銷售愈準確:有2種手錶品牌的銷售量及總額均誤差率偏低,其預測效益評估能力可以被接受。其中預測值較精準的2種品牌手錶中,均具價格彈性小的特質。
The watch sales in Taiwan has been on steady growth in the past years despite global financial crisis in 2009. Swiss watch export to Taiwan suffered moderate decline which fair better than global industry average when comparing to drastic setback in the key markets. Although Swiss watch export began to see light at the end of the tunnel during the holiday season of 2009, but had the colossal financial crisis that casted grave consequences in the luxury goods sales altered methodology and business model from the independent to conglomerate? The five business studies include watch of different segments covering period of 7 years from 2003 to 2009, case studied include actual sales units and figures as prime examples based on 7 economic variables: TW Weighted Index, Unemployment Rate, Business Earnings, Currency Fluctuation, Interest Rate, Consumer Index Ratings & Cash Deposit Index as factors of general consensus, the indices are then calculated in one-month behind, one-quarter behind & six-month behind period as factors in comparison. In addition, classic models in seasonal change are also factored in predicting future trend in sales. The statistic of this study proved the following conclusions: 1. All 7 Macroeconomic Variables were vital in changing trend in sales as different price segments in successive period which evolved into different outcome. 2. Sales of entry-level sector definitely correlated to seasonal change, especially with holiday theme that were popular with loyal consumers, as fluctuation is very sensitive and rapid, it is the opposite with luxury watchs whereas sales are usually faster to rebound. 3. The narrower price elasticity of a brand proved easier for prediction of sales of the two brands studied, brand with slimmest room of price elasticity yielded the most accurate statistic.