本文探討「house prices」與「market fundamentals」之間的關係,利用 Panel Data 模型由市場總體經濟變數 (房貸利率、可支配所得、股價指數、建構成本、GDP 與 CPI) 決定房屋基要價值,瞭解其與真實房屋價格間的差異,計算亞洲主要城市 (台北、東京、首爾、香港、新加坡與上海) 房價泡沫存在的大小。 實證結果顯示:2011 年台北與香港房價泡沫比例約 40%,新加坡房價泡沫比例約 30% ,而在本研究中東京、首爾之房價泡沫較不明顯。
This article discusses the relationship between “house prices” and “market fundamentals”. We establish the Panel Data model to determined fundamental value. Fundamental value is determined by the market in general economical variables (lending rate、disposable income、stock price index、construction materials price index、GDP and CPI), compare it with the real house price. We want to examine the size of the bubble in the major cities of Asia, including Taipei, Tokyo, Seoul, Hong Kong, Singapore and Shanghai. The results show that a bubble in Taipei and Hong Kong in 2011, accounting for about 40% , in Singapore in 2011, accounting for about 30%. However, the size of the bubble is not significant in the Tokyo and Seoul.