- 學位論文
太陽能產業破產風險之研究-以美國及德國廠商為例
Bankruptcy risk for PV industry-an example from American and German companies
摘要
太陽能產業自2005 年後蓬勃發展，全球廠商不斷投入產能的擴張及技術的研發， 在供需失衡及歐債風暴影響下，太陽能產品價格持續下跌，導致廠商由盈轉虧，自2011 年起陸續傳出公司破產的消息。 由於企業破產將導致股東及債權人鉅額的損失，為了避免此種狀況，基於銀行授信 觀點，在太陽能產業仍為未來綠色能源發展的重點項目下，建立單一產業的破產預警模 型可以降低銀行授信風險，提升經營績效。 為建立單一產業破產預警模型，本研究以美國及德國上市太陽能供應鏈中於2011 年至2013 年第一季宣告破產的企業為樣本，合計11 家，另以1：2 配對正常公司，共 33 家企業進行研究，研究採用財務變數24 個，經Logit 模型實證後，在破產前三年至 前一年整體預測能力分別為81.82%、93.94%、84.85%，型一誤差由破產前三年的19.23% 降至第二年4.54%、第一年9.52%，預測能力良好。 經本研究針對太陽能產業破產預測發現，破產前一年EBITDA/利息費用、現金流量 比率最具預測能力，破產前二年為Long-Term Debt/Total Capital、現金流量比率最 具預測能力。
並列摘要
The solar energy industry has since 2005 undergone a rapid development, global producers are rushing to join in the energy output expansion and technology research and development, and as impacted by an imbalance of supply and demand and the Euro debt crisis, the price of solar energy products continues to tumble, eating into the producers’ profit as they see their earnings evaporate into deficits, with news of many companies going bankrupt begins to spread in 2011. For how business bankruptcy will incur significant losses to the shareholders and the credits, and to avoid such circumstance, yet taking to the bank’s lending point of view reckoning that the solar energy industry is still considered a bright spot in green energy development for the future, instilling a singular industry’s bankruptcy pre-warning model can help to reduce the bank’s lending risk and improve the operating performance. To instill a single industry bankruptcy pre-warning model, the study focuses on businesses that declared bankruptcy in the solar energy supply chain from 2011 to Q1 2013 in the United States and Germany as the samples, totally 11 businesses, which are paired with normal companies at a ratio of 1:2, totaling 33 businesses with which to conduct the study. The study adopts 24 financial variables, and upon putting the data through the Logit model validation, the model’s overall forecastability on the samples from three years to one year prior to the bankruptcy indicates 81.82%, 93.94%, and 84.85%, and the model’s variation has reduced from 19.23% three years earlier down to 4.54% two years earlier, and 9.52% one year earlier, projecting a good forecastability. The study, focusing on the solar energy industry’s bankruptcy pre-warning model, shows that of the EBITDA/interest expenditure one year before the bankruptcy, the cash flow ratio offers the best forecastability, and of the long-term debt/total capital two years before the bankruptcy, the cash flow ratio offers the best forecastability.