- 學位論文
貿易百貨產業營運資金供需與營收淨額季節指數關聯性之研究
A Study of Seasonal Index of Corporate Working Capital and Revenue in Trade Department Store Industry
摘要
企業之經營是一種動態的、連續性的投資行為。在投資行為與財務管理的關係中，又以淨營運資金之供需管理為重要的關鍵因素。透過同時檢視淨營運資金供需及資金缺口，將可深入診斷企業之金流及財務營運品質。本研究以台灣貿易百貨產業中的特力和遠百二家具代表性的貿易百貨公司於2000至2013年每季之營收淨額、營運資金供給金額、營運資金需求金額以及營運資金缺口金額作為研究變數，使用X-11古典時間模型分析二家公司其研究變數之季節指數波動是否有顯著性的季節穩定性及移動性的變化效果，並建構預測未來一年季節指數之模型，以MAPE指標進行預測績效準確度之評估。所得結論如下： 一、在淡旺季指數的差異方面(即穩定性測試)：特力公司在營收淨額、營運資金供給金額及營運資金需求金額等三項變數受到淡旺季的顯著影響；遠百公司在營收淨額、營運資金需求金額及營運資金缺口金額等三項變數受到淡旺季的顯著影響。 二、在淡旺季指數是否會隨不同年度而改變或移動方面(即移動性測試)：特力公司之四項變數皆未達顯著移動；遠百公司在營收淨額、營運資金需求金額及營運資金缺口金額等三項變數皆有顯著移動。 三、以二家公司之四項研究變數所建構之季節指數預測模型，外部效度檢測MAPE預測誤差率皆在2%以下，顯示預測模型已相當精準，具實務應用之意涵。
並列摘要
Enterprise management is a dynamic and continuous investment behavior. Among the issues between investment behavior and financial management, the supply and demand of net working capital is a key factor. Throughout the investigation of the supply, demand and shortage of net working capital, we could diagnose a company’s capital flow and financial operation quality. In this study, two firms, HOLA and the Far Eastern Department Stores, within the Taiwan department store industry are selected. The quarterly data, ranging from 2000 to 2013, of net revenue, the supply, demand and shortage of working capital were collected. Using the SAS X-11 classical time series decomposition model, stable and moving seasonality tests are examined. The X-11 forecasting models are constructed and the forecasting accuracy is checked for all variables using the MAPE index. The conclusions are as follows: 1.The seasonal stability tests show that there are significant differences in some of variables. 2.The seasonal mobility tests show that there are significant differences among these four variables. 3.The MAPE for all research variables are less than 2%, indicating the forecasting model is very accurate and useful.