犯罪不僅是一個社會問題,亦是經濟問題,追求經濟成長的同時,無可避面地社會問題隨即衍生。近年來,我國便利商店快速擴大規模經營已居世界之冠,而刑案犯罪率卻未隨經濟活動進步而增加,反倒有逐年遞減之現象,美國學者 Jacobs (1961) 提出街道上商店具有外部利益特質,故本研究藉由所觀察到之現象討論我國對於犯罪的預防還有對於治安防治政策上不同於以往依賴懲罰制度的看法,探討我國近十年來便利商店密集度影響刑案犯罪率趨勢為本研究所關注之重點。 本研究刑事案件犯罪率資料取自《中華民國統計網:統計資料庫》,連鎖便利商店展店概況採用《流通快訊》所發行之刊物統計之時間序列資料,包含全台 16 家便利商店之統計。樣本期間從 2003 年 9 月至 2013 年 8 月。利用 OLS 迴歸分析,發現便利商店密集度對暴力犯罪的影響呈負相關。由於竊盜犯罪與全般刑案之資料具有自我相關,本研究利用 ARX 模型進行分析,得到結果便利商店密度對竊盜犯罪率呈負相關。而便利商店密集度與全般刑案之影響則不具有統計顯著性。本研究以連鎖便利商店密度來解釋城市化過程中與犯罪率之關係,實證結果發現便利商店密集度對於竊盜犯罪與暴力犯罪存在抑制之效果。
Taiwan has the highest convenience store density in the world. Over the past decade, convenience stores have increased sharply from 32 to 42 per 100,000 people in Taiwan. Some people believed that convenience stores are attractive targets to robbers and leads to more crimes. Others believed that stores may provide externalities such as lighting which increases safety and reduces crime. The study investigates the relationship between crime rate and convenience store density using the monthly data from the Statistical Yearbook of the Interior and Journal of Distribution News during September, 2003 to August, 2013. OLS and ARX models are used for estimation. The empirical results suggest that both theft crime and violence crime rate were decrease while the density of the convenience store increased, indicating that the positive externalities may outweigh its negative impact and more convenience stores lead to lower theft crime and violence crime rate.