台灣參與跨太平洋夥伴協定(TPP) 之可計算一般均衡分析

A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis on Taiwan’s Participation in Trans-Pacific Partnership

李玠樺(Chieh_hua Lee)

指導教授 ： 李叢禎

國立臺北大學/社會科學學院/經濟學系/碩士(2014年)

摘要

跨太平洋夥伴組織（TPP）中共有12個成員國，其服膺新世代貿易協定全面自由化之精神，意即除了商品貿易外，服務業貿易自由化亦扮演重要角色。本文藉由實證經濟觀點，對台灣參與TPP之經濟影響從事量化評估，以瞭解TPP對台灣經濟之影響全貌，俾利相關政策及因應配套措施之研擬。具體而言，本文利用全球貿易分析模型（Global Trade Analysis Project, GTAP）配合 GTAP 8.1版資料庫從事模擬研究，除了以進口關稅減讓方式達成貨品貿易自由化，還考量了服務業約當關稅減讓、對外直接投資（Foreign Direct Investment, FDI）鬆綁之經濟影響衝擊。為凸顯FDI在服務業貿易中所扮演的角色，本文特別設定以下三種模擬情境，包括：(1)開放貨品貿易，模擬方法為貨品進口關稅減讓；(2)除情境1之貨品貿易開放外，同時考量服務業約當關稅減讓；(3)除情境2之貨品關稅及服務業約當關稅減讓外，進一步考量FDI鬆綁之效果。
本文模擬結果顯示，在所有情境下，台灣參與TPP均能獲致經濟成長之利得，惟服務業貿易自由化深受FDI鬆綁之影響，在考量FDI鬆綁效果後，台灣加入TPP的整體經濟利得反而下降，表示FDI不一定對一國的經濟有正面影響，此與傳統文獻僅考量服務業約當關稅減讓所獲致之結論有很大不同。此外，貿易為產出比例增加幅度最大之服務業部門，係因其可以調動其服務業傳遞模式，較其他產業部門具經營彈性；貿易亦為出口比例增加次高之部門，因此台灣應加強法規更新及引進服務業標準系統，使該產業與具有國際競爭力。其他商業服務為產出比例減少幅度最大之產業，係因該部門FDI呈現淨流出的狀態。政府應訂定相關投資規範與鼓勵台資回流之措施，回復該部門原有產出水準。最後，台灣可積極爭取與TPP已開發國家之服務業雙邊合作與技術互補契機，如學習美國、日本等發展服務業的特點，塑造出具有台灣特色的服務業部門，並投資開發中國家如越南、汶萊當地服務業以開拓國際市場。

關鍵字

全球貿易分析模型 ； 跨太平洋夥伴組織 ； 對外直接投資

並列摘要

Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is composed of twelve member countries, which follws the spirit of comprehensive liberalization in the new generation free trade agreement (FTA). In other words, not only commodity trade but also service trade liberalization plays an important role in TPP. This thesis aims at providing an empirical analysis on the economy-wide impact of Taiwan’s participation in TPP. The associated numerical results will provide useful information that facilitates the optimal design of related policies and supporting measures. Specifically, this thesis adopts the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model along with the GTAP version 8.1 database for our quantitative analysis. We consider not only import tariff reduction for freer trade of physical commodities, but also tariff equivalent reduction and the flows of foreign direct investment (FDI) for service trade liberalization. In particular, we highlight the role of FDI in the service trade liberalization, and design three simulation scenarios, consisting of (1) the first simulation scenario uses import tariff reduction for opening goods trade; (2) in addition to the shocks in scenario 1, the second simulation scenario further removes tariff equivalent in service trade; (3) in addition to the shcoks in scenario 2, the third simulation scenario further considers the effect of FDI flows.
According to our simulation results, Taiwan will experience economic gains after trade liberalization with TPP member countries uder all simulation scenarios. In addition, FDI flows significantly affect the numerical results of service trade liberalization. After considering FDI, the economic gains of Taiwan decline. In other words, considering FDI flows in a simulation scenario of service trade liberalization will not necessarily lead to a positive economic impact on the participating country. This conclusion is quite different from that drawn in the traditional literature on service trade liberalization which merely considers the reduction in tariff equivalent of service trade. Among all service sectors, the trade sector has the most significant percentage increase in the output becasue this sector can flexibly change its service mode. Accordingly, the government should revise the legislation in a timely manner and introduce service standard system to increase the industrial competitiveness. The other business services sector has the most significant percentage decrease in the output owing to its FDI net outflow. Government should set associated investment regulation and encourage FDI inflow so as to maintain the production level. Finally, Taiwan should engage in the service industry cooperation with the TPP developed countries, such as the USA and Japan, and invest in the TPP developing countries (such as Vietnam and Brunei) in order to expand the international market.

並列關鍵字

Foreign Direct Investment ； Global Trade Analysis Project ； Trans-Pacific Partnership

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