我國機車成長因子與環境外部效果評估

Assessment of Motorcycles Economic Growth Factors and Environmental Impact in Taiwan

張維中(WEI-CHUNG CHANG)

指導教授 ： 李堅明

國立臺北大學/公共事務學院/自然資源與環境管理研究所/碩士(2012年)

摘要

台灣每人機車持有量為0.5輛/人，名列全亞洲之冠。隨者機車數量快速成長，已構成道路交通安全、空氣品質及噪音等生命健康與環境問題，因此，瞭解機車成長因子及其環境衝擊效果，將有助於我國機車管理政策擬定之參考。基於此，本研究建立五個假設，分別為：假設一：人均GDP與機車量呈現U字型顧志耐曲線；假設二：油價與機車數量呈負向影響；假設三：機車數量與小客車數量呈負向影響；假設四：機車數量與大客車數量呈負向影響；假設五：機車數量與運輸部門燃燒燃料二氧化碳排放量呈正向影響。統計分析結果顯示，接受假設一、假設二及假設三，但拒絕假設四與假設五。上述分析結果，隱含隨著台灣經濟成長機車量呈現先減後增之現象；油價提高的確會抑制機車成長，然而，民眾以汽車取代機車，而非轉移至大眾運輸。從而，可以發現，機車減少反而不利運輸部門二氧化碳排放管理。

關鍵字

機車成長因子 ； 環境衝擊 ； 人均機車持有量 ； 時間序列分析

並列摘要

There are 0.5 motorcycles per capita in Taiwan, the highest amount of any country in the world. If the quantity of motorcycles continues to rise, this will result in more problems such as traffic safety, air quality, and environmental degradation. A realization of the key factors facilitating motorcycle growth rates, and its effect on environmental degradation, is helpful in creating policies and measures, for Taiwanese government. This study establishes five assumptions. Assumption 1: the motorcycle amount with GDP per capita has a relationship like U shape Kuznets curve. Assumption 2: the motorcycle amount has a negative relationship with oil price. Assumption 3: the motorcycle amount has a negative relationship with passenger vehicle. Assumption 4: the motorcycle amount has a negative relationship with public transportation. Assumption 5: the motorcycle amount has a positive relationship with greenhouse gas emission of transportations sector.
The analytical results indicate that some assumptions (1, 2, and 3) are accepted, and some assumptions (4 and 5) are rejected. Economic meaning behind the results provides the motorcycle amount was substituted by the passenger vehicle, and not by the public transportation. This addresses motorcycle amount has a negative effect with greenhouse gas emission of transportation sector.

並列關鍵字

motorcycle growth factor ； environmental impact ； motorcycles per capita ； time series analysis.

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