以引力模型分析區域貿易組織之貿易流量

Analysis of Gravity Model of Trade Creation among Regional Trade Organizations

尤俊仁(Zun-Ren Yu)

指導教授 ： 林清泉

崑山科技大學/商業管理學院/企業管理研究所/碩士(2005年)

https://doi.org/10.6828/KSU.2005.00024

摘要

本文分析北美自由貿易組織(NAFTA)、歐洲聯盟(EU)、東南亞國協(ASEAN)及紐澳自由貿易組織(CER)自1990年至2003年間雙邊貿易流量特徵，運用引力模型(Gravity Model)探討各區域組織內的貿易情形以及區域間雙邊貿易流量的趨勢，並分析中國、台灣、韓國、新加坡和香港對此四個組織的貿易流量趨勢。
本研究在模型中增加國家整體競爭力之變數，並進行單一自變數之個別顯著性檢定，探討雙邊貿易與國家整體競爭力是否有相關性的影響，研究結果顯示國家整體競爭力對雙邊貿易有正向的影響，換句話說，當國家整體競爭力愈高，有助於進行對外貿易。研究發現在各區域組織之貿易水準皆有成長的趨勢，NAFTA區域內貿易創造效果高於其他區域貿易組織；在區域組織之間的貿易情形除了歐盟與紐澳之間貿易有達到水準外，其餘皆為負水準。亞洲五地區對四個區域貿易組織之貿易水準來看，近幾年來中國對這四個區域貿易組織之貿易水準有逐年成長的趨勢。研究也發現加入區域貿易組織有助於國家本身經貿的發展，且區域組織之會員國的經濟優勢比非會員國來得大。

關鍵字

北美自由貿易組織 ； 歐洲聯盟 ； 東南亞國協 ； 紐澳自由貿易組織 ； 引力模型

並列摘要

The present study investigated the characteristics of bilateral trade flows with the four regional trade organizations (NAFTA, EU, ASEAN, and CER) during 1990-2003. The gravity model was used to estimate the trade condition of intra-organizations, and the trend of bilateral trade flows of the organization nations. We also analyze trend of bilateral trade between Taiwan, China, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong with four regional trade organizations.
In this paper we add the parameter of the world competitiveness, and proceed individual test with each of independent variables that whether the world competitiveness is related to bilateral trade or not. The result that we find the world competitiveness is positive effect to bilateral trade. In other words, It is helpful to improve bilateral trade when the country competitiveness is high. We also find the trade creation of NAFTA is higher than others. The trade standard among EU and CER is higher than others. In the view of Asia countries trade with regional trade organizations, the trade standard among China and regional trade organizations is grow up year by year. We also find the country joins in regional trade organization that it can facilitate domestic economy. The economic advantage of members is greater than non-member.

並列關鍵字

Gravity model ； ASEAN ； CER ； NAFTA ； EU

參考文獻

48. 趙文衡，2002，「區域貿易協定與東亞國際政經體系之重組」，問題與研究，第四十一卷，第六期，P. 81-107。

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