台灣光學鏡頭產業之企業評價與經營績效分析

The Enterprises Evaluation and Operating Performance of Optical Lens Industry in Taiwan

張鳳珠(Feng-Chu Chang)

指導教授 ： 黃志祥

國立虎尾科技大學/管理學院/經營管理研究所在職專班/碩士(2012年)

摘要

近年來，隨著數位相機與手機的蓬勃發展，光學鏡頭產業也呈現了快速發展的趨勢，台灣光學鏡頭廠商在國際佔有一席之地，更是少數在技術上能領先超越日系廠商的產業，隨著未來新產品應用快速擴展，業者可望更上層樓，為台灣打下更多第一的名號。
為了解台灣光學鏡頭產業未來利基所在，分析國內廠商競爭優劣勢及未來有發展潛力的產品。因此，希望透過本研究達到對光學鏡頭產業之發展現況與趨勢有更詳細的分析與瞭解，本研究主要以大立光、亞光、玉晶光及今國光等四家公司為樣本，依其2006年至2010年之財務報表做為預估個案公司未來成長率及獲利率的根據，分別採用(1)超額報酬分析、(2)盈餘品質分析、(3)現金流量評價法等法，以估算各公司的基本投資價值及股價的『合理價位』，以及目前股價可能隱含的銷售成長率及盈餘成長率，另以敏感性分析將各個評價因子繪製成龍捲風圖，來觀察個別關鍵評價因子對股價的影響程度。
實證結果顯示，大立光、亞光、玉晶光及今國光的股價合理區間分別為 608.01∼883.46 元、56.49∼61.31 元、204.73∼289.33 元、42.68∼48.37 元。在敏感度分析上，經由個案公司的龍捲風圖得知，邊際利潤率對亞洲光、玉晶光、今國光的股價影響最大，盈餘成長率對大立光的股價影響最大。

關鍵字

企業評價 ； 超額報酬 ； 盈餘品質 ； 現金流量評價法 ； 敏感性分析

並列摘要

In recent years, with the vigorous development of digital cameras and mobile phones, optical lens industry is also showing the order to the trend of rapid growth. The optical lens manufacturers in Taiwan are well known for being the one of the best in the world. They are also one of the few industry technically beyond the Japanese manufacturers . With the rapid expansion of the new applications, the industry is expected to go a rung higher, and to make better reputation for Taiwan.
In order to understand the future niche of the optical industry in Taiwan, the analysis of the domestic manufacturers’ competitive advantages and disadvantages, and future development potential of the product is taken. Therefore, We hope to achieve a more detailed analysis and understanding of the current situation and the development of the optical industry trends through this study. This research focuses on 4 companies, including Largan Precision Co.,Ltd., Asia Optical Co. Inc., GeniuS Electronic Optical Co., Ltd., Kinko Optical Co., Ltd. The financial statements and other relevant data during 2002-2006 are analyzed as the estimated cases in the future growth rate and profit rate through (1)The Analysis of the excess return, (2) The Analysis of Earnings Quality, and (3)Discounted Cash Flow Model to estimate a company investment value and the stock price of a "reasonable price." And the shares that may be implied sales growth rate and earnings growth rate. Besides, sensitivity analysis of each evaluation factor would be drawn into a tornado diagram to observe the affection of the individual critical evaluation factor to the stock price.
The results of empirical evidence presents the reasonable price range of Largan Precision Co.,Ltd., Asia Optical Co. Inc., GeniuS Electronic Optical Co., Ltd., and Kinko Optical Co., Ltd. are：NT$ 608.01∼883.46, NT$ 56.49∼61.31, NT$ 204.73∼289.33, NT$ 42.68∼48.37. In the sensitivity analysis, Through the tornado diagram for each case, It was informed that the greatest impact of the share price of Asia Optical Co. Inc., GeniuS Electronic Optical Co., Ltd., Kinko Optical Co.,Ltd. is the Operating profit rate. The greatest impact of the share price of Largan Precision Co.,Ltd. is the growth of earnings .

並列關鍵字

Enterprise Valuation ； The Excess Return ； Earnings Quality ； Discounted Free Cash Flow Model ； The Sensitive Analysis

參考文獻

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