- 學位論文
以公司治理因素分析上市企業信用風險
Analying the Credit Risks for Listed Companies by Corporate Governance Factors
摘要
本研究欲建立一套以上市上櫃企業為選取樣本的財務危機之預警模型，以利金融機構的徵授信人員或社會上一般的投資者使其能儘早預測出大型企業的財務危機。從 2003 年至 2009 年間，全部 210 家上市上櫃公司中曾發生過財務危機的有 70 家，本研究欲以財務比率變數建立原始模型，再嘗試加入公司治理(非財務性)變數，建立整合財務及非財務的模型，希望能提高模型對公司危機與否的預測能力。實證結果發現，在A組本業經營不佳的財務預警模型中，利息保障倍數，資產報酬率具有高度的顯著性；B組企業過度投資預警模型中，流動比率具有高度的顯著性；C組母子企業交叉護盤的模型中，淨利、現金流動負債比具有高度的顯著性；D組在經營階層掏空資產的模型中，流動比率、股東權益報酬率及現金流動負債比具有高度的顯著性。除此之外，再加入公司治理(非財務性)包含信用評等指標，如︰會計師的變動，公司股利減少(停發)的變數各模型後，得知公司治理(非財務性)變數也有高度的顯著性。根據以上實證結果判斷，上市企業的財務報表因窗飾效應並不具真實性，所以若只依賴財務報表而不就公司治理面再加以分析，將可能在評估授信放款時，會有所偏頗。
並列摘要
This study was to establish a set of publicly traded companies for the selected sample of the financial crisis early warning model to facilitate financial institutions or investors to predict the large enterprises of the financial crisis as soon as possible. From 2003 to the end of 2009, there are 70 out of 210 listed companies had occurred financial crisis, this study intends to use the financial ratio variables to establish the original model, and then try to add a non-financial variables to establish financial and non-financial model, the company hopes to improve the model ability to predict the crisis. Empirical results indicate that poor management in the industry's financial early warning models, the debt ratio is highly significant; over-investment in the enterprise and cross-over to support the model, net profit rate is highly significant; hollowed out in business class assets model, EPS is highly significant. In addition, inclusion of non-financial variables in the model, that replacement of senior managers and financial executives forecast the number and frequency of two kinds of changes in non-financial variables are also highly significant. According to the empirical results, the financial statement of SMEs doesn’t have the authenticity, so if only rely on the report, which may result in the possibility of non-performing loan.