建構中小企業營運風險、製造策略及績效之關聯模型

A Study on the Relationship between Operational Risk, Manufacturing Strategy and Enterprise Performance in SMEs

陳俊佑(Chun-You Chen)

指導教授 ： 張洝源

國立虎尾科技大學/管理學院/工業工程與管理研究所/碩士(2013年)

摘要

在面臨全球化之競爭與市場快速變化的環境下，企業面臨經營風險提高與經營績效降低之困境，有鑑於此，為了在高度競爭且多變環境下生存，企業必須制訂有效的製造策略，已是各企業生存與否的關鍵因素。藉由製造策略、企業風險與績效間關係，找尋有效策略因素，以此降低風險與提高績效。台灣中小企業因本身規模小與資源缺乏等劣勢，與國際競爭相對弱勢，然而中小企業卻是台灣經濟重要命脈之一，如何有效提升台灣中小企業績效相當重要。因此本研究以中小企業為研究對象，探討台灣中小企業製造策略、企業風險與績效之關聯性，並探討在面臨企業風險下，擬訂較佳的策略方法，以有效提升經營績效，並建構一個關聯模型，以提供企業與研究者之參考。

本研究整理製造策略彈性構面為：彈性、品質、交期、成本、服務、時間、創新與環境等八項構面，其中包含二十八項準則；企業風險構面為：環境風險、政治制度、競爭者與市場、產能水準、內部營運、資訊系統與人員風險等七項構面，包含三十五項準則作為研究之架構。本研究利用模糊德爾菲法(Fuzzy Delphi Method)篩選各準則，整合專家共識值，然後運用貝氏網路分析法( Bayesian Network, BN)來建構製造策略、風險與績效之關聯模型，最後透過偏最小平方法（Partial Least Squares, PLS）來驗證關聯模型，並依據關聯模型進行分析，以提供決策者制定決策使用。

運用模糊德爾菲法整合出專家共識值篩選出製造策略十二項準則和風險十三項準則，然後利用貝氏網路建構關聯圖，得知策略方面服務構面與績效有強烈相關，而風險方面則是競爭優劣變化，有間接相關，另外從關聯圖中得知，關注客戶需求與要求這項策略相當重要。最後將關聯模型代入偏最小平方法，準確率69.05％，並剔除五項準則，另外可以從關聯程度得知大部分關聯性都相當顯著，而從關聯強度得知關注客戶需求與要求對能提供高水準的售後服務有高度正相關，提供高水準的售後服務對競爭優勢變化風險有高度正相關，能迅速調整產量對能迅速改變工作間的優先順序有高度正相關以及準時交貨對應允交貨條件有高度正相關，而在潛變係數可以得到準時交貨、品質、應允交貨條件等對整體關聯圖有相當重要之影響程度。

關鍵字

中小企業 ； 製造策略 ； 風險 ； 績效 ； 模糊德爾菲 ； 偏最小平方法 ； 貝氏網路 ； 關聯模型

並列摘要

In the face of global competition and a fast-changing market environment, corporations confronted the difficulties of increased management risks and lower management performances. To survive in a highly competitive and fast-changing environment, corporations must develop effective manufacturing strategies. These manufacturing strategies have become key factors to the survival of various corporations. This study used the relationship between manufacturing strategies, corporate risks, and performance to find factors in effective strategies, and use these factors to reduce risks and enhance performance. Because medium and small enterprises in Taiwan are small in scale, lack resources, and have other disadvantages, they are relatively weak in international competition. However, medium and small enterprises are an important lifeline for Taiwan’s economy. Therefore, methods to enhance the performance of medium and small enterprises in Taiwan are very important. Consequently, this study used medium and small enterprises as research subjects to explore manufacturing strategies, corporation risks, and performance association of medium and small enterprise in Taiwan. This study also explored approaches to develop superior strategies when faced with corporation risks. This was for the purpose of effectively enhancing management performance and constructing a relational model, and provides a reference for corporations and researchers.
The flexibility dimensions in manufacturing strategy integrated by this study include flexibility, quality, delivery period, costs, service, time, innovation, and environment, with a total of 28 criterions. Corporation risk dimensions include environment risks, political system, competitors and the market, production standards, internal operations, information system, and personnel risks, with a total of 35 criterions. These criterions were used for the framework of this study. This study used the fuzzy Delphi method to select various criterions, integrated expert consensus values, and then used the Bayesian Network (BN) to construct the manufacturing strategy, risks, and performance relational model. Finally, a partial least square (PLS) was used to verify relational model. The relational model was used to conduct analysis and to provide a reference for policy makers when setting policy.
This study used the fuzzy Delphi method to integrate expert consensus value and to select 12 manufacturing strategy criterion and 13 risk criterion. BN was used to construct association figure, from which significant correlation between manufacturing strategy service dimensions and performance was found. For the risks, there were indirect correlation between changes in competitive advantage and disadvantage. The association figure also shows that caring about customer needs and requirements is a very important strategy. The relational model was substituted into the PLS. The model had a test accuracy rate of 69.05%, and eliminated five criterions. The association level showed that most associations were very significant. The strength of association showed that caring for customer needs and requirements have a high degree of positive correlation toward providing high standard post-purchase service, and providing high standard post-purchase service has a high degree of positive correlation toward changing risks in competitive advantage. Quick adjustments in production quantity had a high degree of positive correlation toward quickly changing work priority sequence. On time delivery has a high degree of positive correlation toward promised delivery conditions. The creep coefficient found that on time deliver, quality, and promised delivery condition had an important affect on the overall association figure.

並列關鍵字

small and medium enterprise ； manufacturing strategy ； Risk ； Performance ； Fuzzy Delphi Method ； partial least squares ； Bayesian network

參考文獻

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