在多變的時代裡,「速度」是決定企業成為市場領導者或跟隨者的決勝關鍵,凡事講求時間管理、時程管控,以滿足客戶的需求。而新產品開發專案時程管控,更是各企業優先關注、竭力建立之重要議題。優於競爭者的開發專案時程管控,才能取得市場先機。 本研究係以汽車電子產業之產品開發專案為例,透過模糊德菲法(Fuzzy Delphi Method, FDM) ,篩選專案管理專家對於影響專案時程延遲風險之關鍵因素,並應用詮釋結構模式法(Interpretive Structural Modeling, ISM),以二維矩陣(Binary Matrix)的數學運算,呈現相關因素間的結構關聯性,並產生一個完整的多層級結構化階層(Multilevel Structural Hierarchy),以建構專案時程延遲風險關鍵因素之關聯性,再以貝氏網路分析法(Bayesian Network)取得專案管理專家對於專案時程延遲風險關鍵因素關聯影響之風險機率值,以建構專案時程延遲風險之預測模型。 本研究所建構之專案時程延遲風險預測模型,經實例驗證,正確率達90%,希望可藉以提供影響專案時程關鍵因素及專案時程延遲風險預測之參考,以提升企業專案時程控管之能力,強化企業競爭力。
In changing times, “Speed” is the key to determine whether an enterprise is a leader or a follower in the market. Fulfill customer requirements by time and schedule managements. Schedule management about new product development is a crucial subject that every enterprise pays a lot of attention and puts a lot of efforts in. A better schedule management about new product development than your competitors may gain enterprises advantages in the market. This research takes references from product development projects in automotive electronics industry. It obtains critical factors, in project management experts opinions, that affect delay risks in project schedule through the appilication of Fuzzy Delphi Method. Reveal structural correlations among factors and generate a complete multilevel structural hierarchy by the application of Interpretive Structural Modeling and using binary matrix calculation to develop correlations between delay risks in project schedule. Moreover, it obtains the risk probability about how key factors affect delay risks in project schedule management based on experts perspectives to construct a risk prediction model about project schedule delay. The correct rate of this risk prediction model is up to 90%.We hope this research will help improve the project schedule management ability to enterprise and make them more competitive through the support of references about key factors and delay risk predictions to project schedule.