會員制定價與規模擴展之決策分析

本研究提出多年期會員制定價策略(a multi-year membership pricing policy)且應用於服務產業，例如連鎖式健身房。該策略具有三個特色：一、等效的單年會費較低以吸引顧客。二、顧客需一次預付全期的現金。三、該現金能提供企業展店(scale expansion)。在最大化累積利潤為目標之下，本文發展一個非線性混合整數規劃的模型以制訂訂價的決策模式。數值實驗顯示，若實際需求函數正如訂價時點的預測，多年期會員制定價策略明顯優於傳統的訂價策略(一年期會員制)，因為公司可以藉由預收客戶現金來展店，因而增加市占率。但若實際需求函數大幅下跌，遠低於訂價時的預測，這種預收現金的經營模式，可能會帶來很大的風險，甚至因現金流出問題而導致倒閉。

關鍵字

服務定價；會員制定價；規模擴展；健身房

並列摘要

This research proposes a multi-year membership pricing policy for a service business like a gym chain. In the pricing policy, the equivalent membership price per year is relatively low to attract customers and the multi-year membership fees must be prepaid in full. The prepaid cash provides resources for scale expansion by opening new stores. Based on a forecast demand function, we first propose a nonlinear mathematical programming model for the gym chain to make an optimal pricing decision (p*, y*), where p* is the equivalent annual fee for using gym service over y* year). Then we make a risk analysis on this pricing strategy in case the realized demand is different from the forecast demand due to unexpected reasons. According to numerical experiments, we have the following two findings. Firstly, if the realized demand is exactly the same as the forecast demand, the multi-year membership pricing policy is substantially better than the business-as-usual pricing policy (one-year membership) in cash balance, profit, and market share. Secondly, if the realized demand declines much faster than the forecast demand, the gym chain shall experience a “peak-and-down” journey. The gym chain appears quite successful in the early stage but finally may turn to become bankrupt. The “peak-and-down” numerical finding is empirically supported by a real world case in Taiwan.