以時間區間法估計分區管網用水量之研究

Establishment of Time-period Methods for the Estimation of Water Consumption in District Metering Area of Distribution Network

謝瑜軒(Yu-Hsuan Hsieh)

指導教授 ： 黃志彬

國立交通大學/工學院/環境工程系所/碩士(2018年)

摘要

台灣目前只能藉由人工至用戶抄表取得分區管網用水量，但由於抄表區的規劃無法配合分區管網的配置，造成評估用水量時，分區計量管網總表與各用戶水量數據抄表時間常無法位於同一時間區間。供水單位的做法是取一年的移動平均值作為參考，此方法仍然存在一定程度之誤差，並會會造成短期用水變化被平均稀釋。目前尚未建立一套能夠彈性評估任意時間區間用水量之方法。
本研究目的是提出能夠推估指定時間區間用水量的方法，利用已知數據推算範圍內某區間之用水量。本研究以一個月左右的時間為評估區間，共歷時2個月。實驗分別選用兩個小區管網共671戶。藉由蒐集每戶每期用水數據，以兩期平均值推估與線性變化推估之時間區間方法計算評估區間每戶之用水總量，並額外進行抄表取得用水數據做驗證。
結果以使用線性變化推估法有最佳結果，平均百分絕對誤差為18.35%，相關性(R2)達0.95。在不跨區、用水量變化越低、年用水量166至373立方公尺及評估日程在14至61天，這些條件下會有最佳的推估結果。證實本研究所提出之方法能估算任意時長的用水量，並能得到更準確的用水量數值。

關鍵字

分區管網 ； 用水推估 ； 用水推估 ； 用水量

並列摘要

Water consumption is an important indicator for assessing the status of water supply consumption in a district metering area (DMA). However, water consumption can only be collected through manual meter reading in Taiwan. It is working obtain the same date for the meter reading of the DMA entrance meter and the users. Previously, water consumption rate was directly calculated by using the one-year moving average of water consumption data as a reference for the Taiwan Water Company (TWC). However, this method is too rough to calculate accurate water consumption. Until now a method for the assessment of any time period of water consumption rate has not been established yet in the TWC.
This study is aimed at developing a method that could estimate the water consumption at a given short period (1 months). The evaluation interval was fixed for a month with a duplication testing. The testing data was collected from 671 households in two DMAs. The water demand at the evaluation any interval by using the known data from the TWC regular meter was calculated. Those data were verified by additional meter readings at the same interval.
The results showed that a linear estimation was the best method with a mean absolute percentage error of 18.35% and correlation (R2) of 0.95 among real data and estimated result. The assessment method in this study showed better results under the given conditions including data from the same meter reading period, low water consumption meter, annual water consumption of 166 to 373 m3, and assessment period of 14 to 61 days. It is confirmed that the method proposed in this study can estimate the water consumption at any given short period with a more accurate value than traditional method.

並列關鍵字

District Metered Areas ； DMA ； Water consumption estimating ； Manual meter reading ； Water interval cutting

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