產業技術與市場需求之混沌秩序研究 ─ 以台灣行動通訊產業為例

Use chaos theory to explore the relationship between industrial technology development and market demand -take taiwan''s mobile telecommunications industry for example

陳紀良(Chi-liang Chen)

指導教授 ： 洪秀婉

國立中央大學/管理學院/企業管理學系/碩士(2007年)

摘要

企業本身和政府、勞工、消費者、金融機構及其他環境要素形成複雜的相互作用，而產業的演變，會隨著時間以動態且非線性的方式呈現，故本研究目的是利用混沌理論的觀點去探討行動通訊產業的發展過程。創新不僅是科技的發明，也必須是消費者願意接受的產品，故本研究將從兩個面向來探討，(一)產業技術發展的演化，(二)市場的消費狀況，運用Lyapunov exponent時間序列法，呈現初始時間點對於系統的影響程度；而實證的衡量指標，以專利核准數目來代表產業得技術產出，以銷售量來代表市場需求的狀況，探討「產業技術發展」和「市場需求」的關聯性與啟示。
結論將以混沌特性發展策略意涵，本研究結果證實行動通訊產業在產業技術面與市場需求面，在2002年之後皆呈現混沌現象。藉由時間初始點與歷史關鍵事件得知，消費者認同的價值與技術研發認定的價值雙方之間的差異；在行動通訊市場中能夠帶給消費者越高的附加價值，越能的到消費者的認同；且系統存在混沌現象，代表系統本身能量是呈現發散的狀態；換句話說，產業狀態是處於成長、活躍的階段；故可以判斷行動通訊的產業，廠商之間對未來技術的發展會投入更多的資源以保持競爭地位；而廠商對於消費需求屬於市場導向，所以行銷與研發的溝通會越來越頻繁，未來的行動通訊會對消費群眾帶來更深遠的影響。

關鍵字

市場需求 ； 產業技術 ； 專利 ； Lyapunov exponent ； 混沌理論

並列摘要

There are complicated interactions among enterprises, the government, labors, consumers, financial institutions and other environmental factors, and the industry evolves over time in a dynamic and non-linear way. Therefore, the purpose of the study is to use chaos theory to investigate the development process of mobile telecommunication industry. Technology innovation is not only the invention, but necessarily products which consumers are willing to accept. From two dimensions, (a) the evolution of industrial technology development and (b) market consumption behavior, this study used Lyapunov exponent to show the degree of initial point’s influence upon the system. As for measurable indicators, the number of patents approved representing technology research and development, as well as sales representing the market demand are used to explore the relationship between industrial technology development and market demand. In the concluding segment, this study developed the chaotic characteristics into strategies

The results of this study confirmed that after 2002, mobile telecommunication industry appears to be in chaos in both aspects of “industrial technology” and “market noodles”. The results showed the difference between the value recognized by consumers and the value identified by R&D. In mobile communication market, the more value added a firm brings consumers, the more consumers identify with it.
.In addition, if the system is in chaos, the system itself appears to be in a state of divergent energy. In other words, the industry is during the stage of growth and dynamics. It may be inferred that in order to maintain the competitive position, firms will invest more resources into the development of future technologies. Firms are market-oriented, and the interaction between marketing and R&D will become more and more frequent. In the future, mobile telecommunication will make a further impact on consumers.

並列關鍵字

Lyapunov exponent ； Industrial technology ； Market demand ； Patent ； Chaos Theory

參考文獻

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