地震數目改變率的計算及應用

A study of the changing rate of earthquake number

林柏辰(Bo-chen Lin)

指導教授 ： 李顯智

國立中央大學/工學院/土木工程學系/碩士(2007年)

摘要

本論文提出ㄧ種計算地震活動變化的方法Acceleration Index (AI)應用於台灣地區，分析深度區間以及時間參數t0,t1,t2,∆tfor,∆tAfter的改變對於尋常值(Usual Mean)及近期平均值(Recent Mean)之影響，且透過AI map預測點之分布探討平均值之穩定性，最後並與PI方法作一對比。根據研究結果顯示， 時間的調整有助於了解台灣地區地震發生之平均值， ∆tfor的選取決定了與大地震有關紀錄之剔除。

關鍵字

地震預測 ； 相對強渡 ； 圖案資訊

並列摘要

In the thesis, we propose a method called the acceleration index (AI) calculate the variations of earthquake activities in Taiwan. We analyzed
the influence of different factors(t0,t1,t2,∆tfor,∆tAfter) to the usual mean and recent mean, and used the distribution of AI map pixels to discuss the stabilize of mean value. Finally, the AI method is compared with the PI method.
According to the results of the survey, the adjustment of the time t0 is helpful to realize the average value of occurrence of earthquakes in Taiwan. The relevant records of strong earthquakes can be eliminated based on the selection of the value of ∆tfor.

並列關鍵字

earthquake forecast ； relative intensity ； pattern informatics

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