動態市場潛能之多世代跨產品擴散模型研究：以電視產業為例

Application of a multi-generation and inter-product diffusion model with dynamic market-potential concept: an empirical analysis of TV Industry

張琬渝(Uan-Iu Jang)

指導教授 ： 洪秀婉

國立中央大學/管理學院/企業管理學系/碩士(2011年)

摘要

Bass(1969)提出的擴散模型在日後的行銷學研究上被大量引用，但此擴散模型侷限在預測單一世代的銷售量，Norton and Bass(1987)則提出多世代擴散模型，強調不同世代產品間銷售量的替代效果，本研究則延續Kim, Chang and Shocker的模型，探討多世代以及跨產品的替代效果外，再更進一步地將所得變數加入此預測模型中以探討所得效果對於產品銷售量的影響。
本研究以CRT TV和LCD TV兩種產品為對象，最後得到LCD TV在本研究模型中有著比前兩個多世代擴散模型較高的配適度，顯示所得為影響消費者購買LCD TV產品的重要因素之一，另外我們也發現當每人平均所得增加時消費者對於19吋以下的電視機產品的購買也會增加，20吋以上的電視機產品則是減少購買。另外，加入所得變數的本研究模型其LCD TV19吋以下產品和CRT TV19吋以下產品則產生了替代效果。檢視兩產品的創新系數和模仿系數 可得知消費者購買CRT TV的行動受到外部效果的影響較大，而LCD TV則相反。
總和以上，本研究模型可提供相關業者更準確地預估銷售量，並且還可觀察多世代產品和跨產品間的替代關係，以及景氣變化時消費者對於產品的購買行為為何，當產品上市時則可以幫助業者做正確的行銷決策。

關鍵字

Chang and Shocker模型 ； Kim ； Norton and Bass模型 ； 非線性最小平方法

並列摘要

From traditional CRT TV to new technology TV such as LCD TV, PDP TV and 3D TV, technology innovations make the TV market uncertainly, so developing a model that can forecast the market share is important , and that could help TV producers make well decisions in R&D、marketing 、human resource… etc. Bass (1969) proposed a diffusion model, but Bass just considered a single generation product. Norton and Bass (1987) modified the Bass model; they brought up a Multi-generation diffusion model. Kim, Chang and Shocker (2000) verified Norton and Bass model, considered market potential isn’t constant, instead is dynamics. Therefore, we focus on Kim, Chang and Shocker model, besides we add income variable to market potential function.

We use traditional color CRT TV and new technology LCD TV to examine substitution effect with intercategory and Multi-generation, and also observe income effect, in the end we got a much higher R-squared. We also found the CRT TV propensity to innovate is higher than that imitate, and LCD TV is opposite. Moreover, it’s positive effect with income to under 20-inch TV, above 20-inch TV is opposite. The conclusion can help producer to forecast the market share effectively and do right decisions.

並列關鍵字

Chang and Shocker model ； NLS ； Norton and Bass model ； Kim

參考文獻

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〔4〕Fisher, J. C., Pry, R. H, "A simple substitution model of technological change", Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 3, pp. 75 – 88,1971.

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