三篇能源經濟的應用

Three Essays on Energy Economic

卓金和(Chin-ho Cho)

指導教授 ： 楊浩彥 ； 朱雲鵬

國立中央大學/管理學院/經濟學系/博士(2011年)

摘要

石油是全世界最重要的能源之一，然而在這幾年石油價格波動的十分明顯，特別在1970年代以後。舉例來說，在2008年六月，石油價格暴漲至每桶133.93美元。因此許多學者也提出解釋和討論。因此在本文中，我們也利用許多不同的面向來觀察石油需求、石油價格以及對於環境的影響。
首先在第二節我們嘗試利用追蹤資料(Panel data)單根、共整合分析檢定1971-2005年亞洲國家的石油需求。為什麼要探討亞洲地區呢?原因是因為根據International Energy Agency (IEA) 預測2008到2030年世界的能源需求將增加45%，其中絕大部份的需求都是來自於亞洲地區，因此研究亞洲的能源需求是有其必要性。在我們的實証結果發現在所得彈性的部份，亞洲的所得彈性高於其他地區，可見未來石油價格上升將會造成亞洲國家急速通貨膨脹。另外在價格彈性的部份，所有的國家價格彈性都非常無彈性，代表未來石油價格上升並不會造成石油消費減少，反而只會造成急速通貨膨脹。因此相較於其他地區，亞洲地區未來將面臨較嚴重的通貨膨脹問題。而其中再生能源可以幫助抑制石油消費增加。
在第三節我們為了觀察在供需均衡下，石油價格以及溫度之間的關係，本篇文章我們首先利用empirical mode decomposition (EMD) approach將石油價格進行分解並將趨勢刪除。此外，為了避免變數之間階次不同而造成分配的不收斂，我們將利用autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework來觀察變數之間的關係。最後我們利用Hansen(1996, 1997, 2000)所提出的門檻檢定來觀察石油價格以及全球溫度的關係。在我們的實證結果中發現，當全球溫度低於門檻值時，全球溫度的上升將舒緩石油價格的上漲。但當全球溫度高於門檻值時，全球暖化將無法抑制石油價格波動。
在第四節中這我們嘗試利用追蹤資料(Panel data)單根、共整合分析檢定OECD22個國家中二氧化碳和所得之間的關係，換句話說就是檢定環境庫茲耐曲線(Environmental Kuznets Curve)是否存在。當環境庫茲耐曲線成立時，環境汙染的問題將會隨著所得增加而獲得改善。另外為了檢驗其他溫室氣體是否也符合環境庫茲耐曲線，我們考慮Total greenhouse gas (TGHG), methane(CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O)三個變數。我們的實證結果發現能源使用仍然是造成二氧化碳排放的主因。另外在環境庫茲耐曲線的部分我們發現在傳統的二氧化碳以及TGHG, CH4 and N2O環境汙染以及所得呈現二次式的關係。所以根據我們的實證結果可以發現，OECD國家在利用panel的估計方式時所得以及汙染呈現二次式的關係。但當估計的方式是個別國家時，大部分的國家呈現不符合環境庫茲耐曲線。

關鍵字

石油價格 ； 追蹤資料 ； 門檻迴歸 ； 石油需求

並列摘要

Crude oil is the one of the most important energy resources in the world and its prices have fluctuated widely, especially since the early 1980s. However, the higher oil price will exert upward pressure on the inflation rate in the world and thereby damage the global economy. Thus, in this paper we investigate the oil demand, oil price as well as environment Kuznets curve. In chapter 2, we attempt to use panel fully-modified OLS approach to example the crude oil demand in Asian countries over the period 1971-2005. The empirical results support that in comparison with OECD countries, GDP still plays an important role in explaining the demand for crude oil in Asian countries. In terms of price elasticity show that raising the oil price due to oil depletion in the future will not easily reduce oil consumption and will only result in extreme inflation. Moreover, we found that renewable energy has effect in terms of reducing oil consumption in Asian countries. In chapter 3, we have attempted to examine the relationships among the crude oil price, global activities index, global temperature as well as the exchange rate over the period from January 1982 to December 2009, using the EMD, ARDL and threshold regression approach. The results indicate that the long-run elasticity of the oil price in relation to global activities is found to be 0.398, which is lower than the finding of He et al. (2010). These results are possibly due to recent improvements in technology that have led to a reduction in demand for crude oil as global activities increase. Furthermore, we have found that global warming will help to reduce the oil price as the global temperature remains below the threshold value. However, after it exceeds the threshold value, as the global temperature continues to rise, it will have no effect in terms of reducing the oil price. In chapter 3, we attempt to use panel unit root and panel cointegration tests as well as the fully-modified OLS approach to examine the relationships among carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, energy use and GDP for 22 OECD countries (Annex II Parties) over the 1971-2000 period. Furthermore, in order to investigate these results for other direct greenhouse gases (GHGs), we have estimated the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis by using the total greenhouse gas (TGHG), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). The empirical results support that energy use still plays an important role in explaining the GHG emissions for OECD countries. In terms of the EKC hypothesis, the results showed that a quadratic relationship was found to exist in the long run. Thus, other countries could learn from the developed countries in this regard and try to smooth the EKC curve at relatively less cost.

並列關鍵字

threshold regression ； EKC curve ； oil price ； Oil demand

參考文獻

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