從日本福島核災探討氣候變遷風險與核能風險認知之研究

The risk perception of climate change and nuclear energy after Fukushima nuclear disaster

陳映如(Ying-Ru Chen)

指導教授 ： 劉錦龍

國立中央大學/管理學院/產業經濟研究所/碩士(2012年)

摘要

近期節能減碳議題遽增主要係因應全球暖化問題，故減少二氧化碳排放是目前國際間制定環境政策極重要的考量，而2011年3月11日發生日本福島核災，全球對此事件再次對核能安全投以關注，因此，本研究的目的為估計台灣民眾避免核能風險與氣候變遷風險的願付價值，以及在日本福島核災後民眾之核能態度分析。
本研究採用假設性市場評估法作估計方式，並透過問卷調查對民眾詢問其願付價值以及相關態度。其中估計願付價值之模型包括OLS、Tobit、雙檻式模型，而以近似無相關迴歸模型探討願付價值間是否存在內生性問題，最後分析核能態度則採用Multinomial Logit模型。
實證結果得出，以天然氣替代核能發電來減少核電廠風險之願付價值介於110元至195元之間，而以核能發電來減緩氣候變遷風險，而提升核能安全來避免核電廠風險之願付價值介於98元至202元之間，以再生能源發電來減緩氣候變遷風險，而承擔較高發電成本來發展再生能源之願付價值介於160元至223元。以近似無相關迴歸模型同時估計三種願付價值之結果，得出殘差項間相關性極高隱含迴歸模型顯著存在內生性問題。核能態度分析部份，得出日本福島核災前後皆反對之民眾有以下態度傾向：核能風險趨避程度較高、對環境風險關切程度較高、較不在意造成人體健康危害之氣候風險、重視發電的安全性、教育年數較低者，而發展核能態度由支持轉為反對之民眾有核能風險趨避程度較高的傾向。

關鍵字

核能態度 ； 願付價值 ； 核能風險 ； 氣候變遷風險

並列摘要

The issue of energy saving and carbon reduction is due to global warming. So that the most important consideration is to reduce the emissions of carbon dioxide. On 11 March 2011, it happened the Fukushima nuclear disaster. People pay more attention to the security of nuclear power. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to estimate the willingness to pay of avoiding the risks of nuclear power and climate change. Furthermore, this study also concerns about the attitude to nuclear energy after the Fukushima nuclear disaster.
This study estimates mainly by contingent valuation method, and asks about the willingness to pay and related attitudes by way of questionnaire survey. As for estimating the willingness to pay, it contains Ordinary least squares regression, Tobit, and Double-Hurdle Model. Besides, this study checks endogeneity between those willingness to pay by Seemingly unrelated regression equations. Finally, the attitude to nuclear energy analyses by Multinomial logit model.
As the empirical results shown, the willingness to pay of substitute for nuclear power by natural gas in order to avoid the risks of nuclear power is between NT$110 and NT$195. To mitigate the risks of climate change by way of nuclear power, the willingness to pay of promotion of nuclear security to avoid the risks of nuclear power is between NT$98 and NT$202. To mitigate the risks of climate change by way of renewables, the willingness to pay of being charged with the higher cost of renewables is between NT$160 and NT$223. Then, the results of Seemingly unrelated regression equations show that the model exists endogeneity significantly. Eventually, the analysis of attitude to nuclear energy show that the tendencies to be opposed attitude whether given before or after are: higher degree of nuclear risk averse, more concerned with environmental risk, less concerned with human health risks, pay much attention to security of electricity generation, less education. However, the tendency to attitude changed from support to oppose only contains higher degree of nuclear risk averse.

並列關鍵字

Risk perception ； Willingness to pay ； Climate change ； Nuclear energy

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