未來研究方法論配適前瞻研究流程之物件導向塑模

Fitting Future Research Methodology in Object-Oriented Modeled Foresight Research Process

施凱博(Kai-bo Shih)

指導教授 ： 薛義誠

國立中央大學/管理學院/資訊管理學系/碩士(2012年)

摘要

隨著社會日益複雜，固有前瞻研究方式與未來研究方法論漸漸不適用，因地制宜地選擇未來研究方法論，甚至結合多種方法論變得重要，而前瞻研究系統化更能提升前瞻研究之正確性與效率。
為了克服此問題，本研究分析前瞻研究流程各階段之目的，與未來研究方法論之特長，進行兩者配適，找出一套前瞻研究流程，能不受限地應用在各領域的前瞻研究。在此流程下，前瞻研究者在每個前瞻研究階段，得以選擇最適合的未來研究方法論進行研究。面對特殊的前瞻研究議題，也能在前瞻研究流程中找到一套各個未來研究方法論各司其職之前瞻研究流程。此一改變，相較於使用單一的未來研究方法面對前瞻研究挑戰，不但使用工具變多，研究彈性變大，也能因為選擇了正確、適合的未來研究研究工具，使前瞻研究的結果更貼近未來。
為了使未來研究方法論間的關係更為明朗，以物件導向設計觀點分析未來研究方法論之間的相似、相依與延伸關係，是前瞻研究系統塑模的前置作業，也表達了未來研究方法論間的彈性使用。在資訊化的部份，本研究以物件導向概念塑模前瞻研究系統，以統一塑模語言描述前瞻研究流程、未來研究方法論與兩者之配適，開啟前瞻研究資訊化、系統化的大門，使前瞻研究者能透過一套完整的工具進行研究，提升前瞻研究之正確性，降低前瞻研究的門檻。
綜合以上敘述，本研究具體貢獻為建構配適未來研究方法論的前瞻研究流程，供前瞻研究依循；模組化前瞻研究流程與未來研究方法論，供前瞻研究者彈性的使用正確、合適的未來研究方論；產出此前瞻研究系統之物件導向模型，使前瞻研究系統化成為可能。

關鍵字

前瞻研究 ； 未來研究方法論 ； 物件導向塑模

並列摘要

Traditional foresight research process and future research methodologies is no longer satisfy in the complicated society. For the correctness and efficiency of foresight studies, using future research methodologies properly even combining multiple future research methodologies is getting important.
To overcome these problems, lat foresight research process satisfy in any foresight studies is a solution. For this, finding a foresight research process by analyzing each sub-processes and future research methodologies first, then fitting future research methodologies in foresight research process. By this process, foresight researchers allow using property future research methodologies in each foresight research sub-processes. When facing a tough problem, future researchers can also find a set of future research methodologies belongs to foresight research process. Comparing with using future research methodologies singly and foresight research process, the latter has more tools, more flexibility and more property.
To make the relationship between future research methodologies clearly, theirs similarity, dependency, extension and object-oriented concepts had been analyzed. It represent the flexibility between future research methodologies and it is also the pre-process of modeling foresight research system.
Object-oriented concepts had been used in modeling foresight research system. Unified Modeling Language(UML) had been used in describing foresight research process, future research methodologies and theirs fitting. These knocked on the door of foresight research’s systematization. It also makes foresight researchers improve the correctness and reduce the complexity in foresight studies by the foresight research system. Providing foresight researchers a complete tool for foresight study.
Concluding previous explanation, the specific contribution of this thesis is fitting future research methodologies in foresight research process, providing foresight research a complete process. Second, modularize foresight research process and future research methodologies, let future researchers using it property and flexibility. Third, the UML model makes foresight research system as possible.

並列關鍵字

future research methodology ； foresight study ； object-oriented modeling

參考文獻

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[10] T. J. Gordon and J. C. Glenn. (2009). Environmental ScanningFutures Research Methodology Version 3.0 (Vol. 1): The Millennium Project; 3.0 edition.