金融自由化和經濟成長之研究

Three Essays On Financial Liberalization And Economic Growth

廖蕙琴(Hui-Chin Liao)

指導教授 ： 黃柏農

國立中正大學/管理學院/經濟系國際經濟研究所/博士(2012年)

摘要

本論文由三篇文章組成。第一篇文章重估金融開放和經濟成長間關係。由於資本邊際報酬的遞減，我們的實證結果發現金融開放對經濟成長是否有顯著的影響，取決於金融開放的程度。採用1985-2008年跨國81個國家資料，發現經濟體要從金融開放得到收益，FDI必須滿足特定的「門檻」水準。實證結果顯示，只有當FDI占GDP比率不超過2.65%時，對成長的效果才會出現。政策隱含當一個國家的FDI比例尚未很高時，政府應允許更多的國外資金流入國內市場以促進經濟成長，特別是對發展中的國家。
第二篇文章提出投資的角色並指出它在金融自由化與經濟成長關連中扮演一個決定性角色，金融自由化對經濟成長的效果取決於金融自由化能否提升國內資本投資。運用多元治療效果架構來處理潛在的選擇性偏誤問題，實證結果顯示，對工業國家，較高程度的金融自由化會減少其投資，但對成長是沒有效果的。新興市場經濟則發現自由化對成長的收益僅出現在自由化程度相對較低時。相反的，對於其他發展中國家，卻只有最高程度的金融自由化能為經濟成長與投資帶來幫助。
第三篇文章我們使用分量迴歸估計關於政策改革路徑對經濟成長影響的議題。證據顯示波動的政策改革路徑會抑制長期經濟成長的效果，尤其是對高成長國家，隱含高成長的國家更應採行更平穩的自由化改革，以避免失去信譽而不利成長。

並列摘要

This dissertation is composed of three essays. The first article re-examines the relationship between financial openness and economic growth. Because of the diminishing the marginal returns of capital, our empirical evidence show that the impact of financial openness on growth depends on different levels of financial openness itself. Using panel data from 81 countries over 1985-2008, we find that FDI seems to be have a certain “threshold” level related to growth that an economy needs to satisfy before it can gain benefit from financial openness. That is, only when the ratio of FDI to GDP does not surpass the level of financial openness, which is about 2.65%, growth effects will appear. The policy implications suggest that when a country with the proportion of FDI is not high enough, the government should adopt a policy which allows more international capital inflow into their domestic market to promote growth, especially for developing countries.
The second subject provides an investment perspective and indicates that investment play a determined role to link between financial liberalization and economic growth. The effect of financial liberalization on growth depends on whether the financial liberalization could foster the accumulation of domestic investment. We implement this analysis through a multiple-treatment framework to deal with the potential selection problem. As the results, for industrial countries, a higher degree of liberalization reduces investment, but has no effect on economic growth, relative to a lower degree of liberalization. Evidence from emerging market economies suggests that the beneficial effect of liberalization emerges only in countries having relatively a lower degree of liberalization. In contrast, for other developing countries, only the highest degree of liberalization has significantly higher economic growth and investment.
In the third subject, using a quantile regression estimator, we examine the issue of policy reform path on economic growth. Our evidence show that the volatile policy reform path will depresses the long-run growth effect, especially for high-growth countries. This implies that higher growth countries should take a smoother path of their policy reform to avoid losing their credibility, which is unfavorable to economic growth.

並列關鍵字

economic freedom ； financial openness ； financial liberalization ； economic growth

參考文獻

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