執行長聲譽、未來盈餘與市場評價

CEO Reputation ,Future Earnings,And Market Mispricing

許懷仁(Hsu,Huai Jen)

指導教授 ： 周庭楷

國立中正大學/管理學院/會計資訊與法律數位學習碩士在職專班/碩士(2012年)

摘要

本研究主要目的在探討高執行長聲譽能否為公司創造出卓越的未來績效，以及市場投資者是否會使用執行長聲譽作為評估公司未來績效的指標並且能將執行長聲譽對未來盈餘之實質影響正確地反映在股價上。
本研究參考Mishkin(1983)之研究方法為架構，以2001年到2010年間台灣上市公司做為研究對象，樣本有2,020個，採用了資料包絡分析法(DEA)推算出執行長的經營效率值、重要商業媒體引用數及計算前三年任期期間產業調整後總資產報酬率的平均數三個變數來探討企業執行長聲譽。延伸Solan的測試，運用疊代一般非線性最小平方法之迴歸分析檢驗執行長聲譽與未來盈餘的影響，對於盈餘持續性與執行長聲譽影響的市場訂價效率測試，係根據限制與非限制聯合估計系統殘差平方和所求出的概似比統計量進行檢定。
本研究結果證明執行長聲譽與未來盈餘是呈現顯著正相關，但市場投資者並不完全能將執行長聲譽對未來盈餘的影響理性地反映在股價上。即表示執行長聲譽愈高，公司獲利能力也愈好，但市場投資者對執行長聲譽有過度樂觀的評價，而存在錯誤訂價的現象。

關鍵字

執行長聲譽

並列摘要

This study examines whether CEO reputation, a crucial characteristic of human capital, is associated with future earnings and whether this association is appropriately reflected in stock prices. Using multiple proxies for CEO reputation, we find that CEO reputation is positively associated with future earnings. Market investors, however, do not fully incorporate the implication of CEO reputation for future earnings into stock prices. The results are robust to decomposing earnings into cash flows and accruals. Overall, this paper provides empirical evidence on the economic consequences associated with CEO characteristics.

並列關鍵字

CEO reputation

參考文獻

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